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Castellonense vs UCAM Murcia - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Spain Spain

Segunda RFEF - Group 3
Our Tip

Match Events

1' Event
Candel S.
21' Event
Alvarez M.
55' Event
Carrillo J.

AI Match Summary

Castellonense in this Segunda RFEF - Group 3 matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Castellonense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

49%
Castellonense
15%
Draws
36%
UCAM Murcia
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Castellonense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Castellonense lately — more wins on the board than UCAM Murcia.
  • 36% — that's where the model lands on Castellonense taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Castellonense Clean Sheet 17%
UCAM Murcia Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Castellonense UCAM Murcia
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 17 15
Draws 5 4
Losses 7 10
Goals Scored 1.52 1.86
Goals Conceded 0.83 1.34
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 5, 2026 Segunda RFEF - Group 3
Castellonense vs UCAM Murcia
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Castellonense Compare

Top Goalscorer Candel S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Alvarez M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

UCAM Murcia Compare

Top Goalscorer Carrillo J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Castellonense 36 / 100
UCAM Murcia 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Castellonense UCAM Murcia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: UCAM Murcia conceded in 83% of 29 recent games.

Attacking prowess: Castellonense scored in 79% of their last 29 outings.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Castellonense stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Castellonense VS UCAM Murcia
1.38 Goals Scored 2
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.63
50% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Castellonense

(Home)
04 Oct
Castellonense
3 : 0
Real Murcia B
27 Sept
Lorca Deportiva
1 : 0
Castellonense
19 Sept
Castellonense
1 : 0
Ciudad Cieza
13 Sept
UD Poblense
1 : 2
Castellonense
05 Sept
Castellonense
2 : 1
UCAM Murcia
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UCAM Murcia

(Away)
03 Oct
Ilicitano
1 : 5
UCAM Murcia
27 Sept
UCAM Murcia
1 : 2
CF Intercity
20 Sept
Baleares
1 : 4
UCAM Murcia
13 Sept
UCAM Murcia
1 : 0
Valencia B
05 Sept
Castellonense
2 : 1
UCAM Murcia
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Castellon B 5 4 0 1 12:5 12
2 La Nucia 5 4 0 1 9:3 12
3 Castellonense 5 4 0 1 8:3 12
4 Alcoyano 5 3 1 1 6:4 10
5 UCAM Murcia 5 3 0 2 12:6 9
6 CF Intercity 5 2 3 0 7:5 9
7 Ciudad Cieza 5 2 2 1 7:3 8
8 Deportiva Minera 5 2 2 1 5:4 8
9 Yeclano 5 2 2 1 4:3 8
10 Orihuela 5 2 1 2 6:11 7
11 Lorca Deportiva 5 1 2 2 3:4 5
12 Mallorca B 5 1 2 2 2:4 5
13 Baleares 5 1 2 2 6:9 5
14 Valencia B 5 1 1 3 5:7 4
15 Ilicitano 5 1 1 3 3:8 4
16 UD Poblense 5 1 0 4 3:7 3
17 Real Murcia B 5 1 0 4 4:11 3
18 Pena Deportiva 5 0 1 4 3:8 1
Promotion - Segunda RFEF - Group 1 (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation - Segunda RFEF - Group 1 (Play Out)