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Castrovillari vs AS Acireale - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group I 2023/2024
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Match Events

45' Event
Zuppel D.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group I 2023/2024 game between Castrovillari and AS Acireale finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward AS Acireale.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Castrovillari
30%
Draws
23%
AS Acireale
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Castrovillari

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and AS Acireale come out ahead of Castrovillari on wins alone.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
  • Regular Serie D - Group I 2023/2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 37%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.8%
Castrovillari Clean Sheet 20%
AS Acireale Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Castrovillari AS Acireale
Matches Played 28 45
Wins 2 12
Draws 12 18
Losses 14 15
Goals Scored 0.89 1.16
Goals Conceded 1.93 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.67 1.18
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 24, 2024 Serie D - Group I
Castrovillari vs AS Acireale
0:1
Nov 12, 2023 Serie D - Group I
AS Acireale vs Castrovillari
3:3
Jan 29, 2023 Serie D - Group I
AS Acireale vs Castrovillari
1:2
Oct 5, 2022 Serie D - Group I
Castrovillari vs AS Acireale
0:4
Apr 27, 2022 Serie D - Group I
AS Acireale vs Castrovillari
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Castrovillari Compare

Avg xG / game 1.28
Avg xA / game 0.83

AS Acireale Compare

Top Goalscorer Zuppel D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.07
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Castrovillari 32 / 100
AS Acireale 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Castrovillari AS Acireale

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

AS Acireale let in goals in 80% of their last 45 matches.

Castrovillari found the back of the net in 64% of recent matches (28 games).

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

AS Acireale's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

- VS AS Acireale
0 Goals Scored 1.25
0 Goals Conceded 2.13
0% Over 1.5 100%
0% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Castrovillari

(Home)
05 May
Castrovillari
0 : 2
Nuova Gioiese
28 Apr
Licata
3 : 1
Castrovillari
21 Apr
Castrovillari
1 : 1
Portici 1906
14 Apr
Siracusa
3 : 1
Castrovillari
07 Apr
Castrovillari
2 : 1
San Luca
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AS Acireale

(Away)
10 May
Vibonese
1 : 0
AS Acireale
03 May
Vibonese
1 : 0
AS Acireale
26 Apr
AS Acireale
0 : 0
USD Ragusa
19 Apr
Gelbison
2 : 1
AS Acireale
12 Apr
AS Acireale
0 : 0
Nissa
Page 1 of 9

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Trapani 34 30 4 0 95:15 94
2 Siracusa 34 25 6 3 79:26 81
3 Vibonese 34 22 6 6 67:29 72
4 Reggina 34 19 8 7 54:25 65
5 AS Acireale 34 15 9 10 39:41 54
6 S. Agata 34 15 7 12 46:35 52
7 Real Casalnuovo 34 15 6 13 52:49 51
8 USD Ragusa 34 14 8 12 41:38 50
9 Canicatti 34 14 6 14 55:51 48
10 Igea Virtus 34 13 6 15 38:40 45
11 Licata 34 12 7 15 43:54 43
12 Akragas 34 12 6 16 42:53 42
13 Sancataldese 34 9 10 15 32:43 37
14 Portici 1906 34 8 8 18 32:55 32
15 San Luca 34 6 12 16 37:55 29
16 Locri 1909 34 7 7 20 34:68 28
17 Castrovillari 34 2 12 20 29:76 17
18 Nuova Gioiese 34 3 2 29 18:80 11
19 Lamezia Terme 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Serie D - Group I 2023/2024 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group I 2023/2024 (Play Out)