Sport Picks

Italy

Serie D - Group I 2023/2024

Castrovillari

0 - 2

Nuova Gioiese

Our Tip

Match Events

57'

Chazarreta M.

73'

Montefusco F.

90'

Vasil M.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group I 2023/2024 game between Castrovillari and Nuova Gioiese finished 0-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Nuova Gioiese.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%

Castrovillari

20%

Draws

38%

Nuova Gioiese

Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Castrovillari

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

67% / Medium Confidence

Castrovillari have managed 0.75 goals a game lately — Nuova Gioiese are scoring more at 0.88.
42% — that's where the model lands on Castrovillari taking it.
Regular Serie D - Group I 2023/2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 70%

Over 4.5 Goals 32%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%

Castrovillari Clean Sheet 20%

Nuova Gioiese Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Castrovillari	Nuova Gioiese
Matches Played	28	29
Wins	2	2
Draws	12	3
Losses	14	24
Goals Scored	0.75	0.88
Goals Conceded	1.25	1.88
Expected Goals (xG)	0.75	0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.25	1.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 5, 2024 Serie D - Group I

Castrovillari vs Nuova Gioiese

Possession: 40% - 48% Cards: 1 - 1

0:2

Dec 20, 2023 Serie D - Group I

Nuova Gioiese vs Castrovillari

Possession: 48% - 52% Cards: 2 - 0

0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Castrovillari Compare

Avg xG / game 0.58

Avg xA / game 0.38

Nuova Gioiese Compare

Top Goalscorer Chazarreta M.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Vasil M.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 0.8

Avg xA / game 0.49

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Castrovillari 42 / 100

Nuova Gioiese 36 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Castrovillari Nuova Gioiese

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes

Correct Score 2:2

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Nuova Gioiese's defensive record shows goals conceded in 93% of 29 matches.

Castrovillari found the back of the net in 64% of recent matches (28 games).

Historical meetings average 1.50 goals per match.

Difficult form: Nuova Gioiese registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Castrovillari VS Nuova Gioiese

0.75 Goals Scored 0.88

1.25 Goals Conceded 1.88

63% Over 1.5 75%

38% Over 2.5 63%

25% Over 3.5 38%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Trapani	34	30	4	0	95:15	94
2	Siracusa	34	25	6	3	79:26	81
3	Vibonese	34	22	6	6	67:29	72
4	Reggina	34	19	8	7	54:25	65
5	AS Acireale	34	15	9	10	39:41	54
6	S. Agata	34	15	7	12	46:35	52
7	Real Casalnuovo	34	15	6	13	52:49	51
8	USD Ragusa	34	14	8	12	41:38	50
9	Canicatti	34	14	6	14	55:51	48
10	Igea Virtus	34	13	6	15	38:40	45
11	Licata	34	12	7	15	43:54	43
12	Akragas	34	12	6	16	42:53	42
13	Sancataldese	34	9	10	15	32:43	37
14	Portici 1906	34	8	8	18	32:55	32
15	San Luca	34	6	12	16	37:55	29
16	Locri 1909	34	7	7	20	34:68	28
17	Castrovillari	34	2	12	20	29:76	17
18	Nuova Gioiese	34	3	2	29	18:80	11
19	Lamezia Terme	0	0	0	0	0:0	0