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Castrumfavara vs S. Agata

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group I 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

23' Event
Faccetti P.
75' Event
Nunzi E.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group I 2024/2025 game between Castrumfavara and S. Agata finished 0-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward S. Agata.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Castrumfavara
35%
Draws
25%
S. Agata
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Castrumfavara

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Castrumfavara carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Castrumfavara's way, sitting at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.8%
Castrumfavara Clean Sheet 19%
S. Agata Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Castrumfavara S. Agata
Matches Played 34 30
Wins 12 7
Draws 7 9
Losses 15 14
Goals Scored 1.18 1.3
Goals Conceded 1.35 1.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.04 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 4, 2025 Serie D - Group I
Castrumfavara vs S. Agata
0:2
Dec 22, 2024 Serie D - Group I
S. Agata vs Castrumfavara
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Castrumfavara Compare

Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.52

S. Agata Compare

Top Goalscorer Faccetti P.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Nunzi E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Castrumfavara 40 / 100
S. Agata 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Castrumfavara S. Agata

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Castrumfavara Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: S. Agata conceded in 90% of 30 recent games.

Attacking prowess: Castrumfavara scored in 71% of their last 34 outings.

Recent resilience: Castrumfavara stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Games between these two average 1.00 goals.

Scoring Trends

Castrumfavara VS -
0.88 Goals Scored 0
1.5 Goals Conceded 0
75% Over 1.5 0%
50% Over 2.5 0%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Castrumfavara

(Home)
16 Sept
Castrumfavara
1 : 1
Licata
13 Sept
Gela
2 : 1
Castrumfavara
06 Sept
Castrumfavara
3 : 0
Milazzo
03 May
Castrumfavara
2 : 2
Enna
26 Apr
Paterno
1 : 3
Castrumfavara
Page 1 of 7

S. Agata

(Away)
11 May
AS Acireale
2 : 2
S. Agata
04 May
Castrumfavara
0 : 2
S. Agata
27 Apr
S. Agata
1 : 3
Scafatese
17 Apr
Sancataldese
2 : 1
S. Agata
13 Apr
S. Agata
1 : 1
Pompei
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Siracusa 32 25 3 4 65:16 78
2 Reggina 32 24 5 3 65:22 77
3 Scafatese 32 20 5 7 58:26 65
4 Sambiase 32 15 9 8 40:27 54
5 Vibonese 32 15 5 12 44:31 50
6 Nissa 32 11 13 8 48:49 46
7 Paterno 32 10 14 8 26:32 44
8 USD Ragusa 32 9 11 12 37:37 38
9 Pompei 32 10 8 14 29:42 38
10 Igea Virtus 32 10 7 15 36:47 37
11 Sancataldese 32 7 14 11 28:40 35
12 Enna 32 7 14 11 21:39 35
13 AS Acireale 32 8 10 14 35:50 34
14 Castrumfavara 32 5 15 12 27:40 30
15 Licata 32 8 4 20 33:55 28
16 S. Agata 32 6 9 17 40:54 27
17 Locri 1909 32 6 6 20 32:57 24
18 Akragas 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Serie D - Group I 2024/2025 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group I 2024/2025 (Play Out)