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Castrumfavara vs Sambiase

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group I 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

17' Event
Colombatti G.
42' Event
Sueva G.

AI Match Summary

Sambiase in this Serie D - Group I 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Sambiase.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

45%
Castrumfavara
35%
Draws
20%
Sambiase
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Castrumfavara

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

45% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Sambiase lately — more wins on the board than Castrumfavara.
  • Win probability leans Castrumfavara's way, sitting at 80%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
Castrumfavara Clean Sheet 68%
Sambiase Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Castrumfavara Sambiase
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 9 12
Draws 6 8
Losses 15 10
Goals Scored 1.17 1.07
Goals Conceded 1.5 0.93
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 11, 2026 Serie D - Group I
Castrumfavara vs Sambiase
0:2
Sep 14, 2025 Serie D - Group I
Sambiase vs Castrumfavara
1:1
Feb 23, 2025 Serie D - Group I
Castrumfavara vs Sambiase
1:2
Oct 23, 2024 Serie D - Group I
Sambiase vs Castrumfavara
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Castrumfavara Compare

Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Sambiase Compare

Top Goalscorer Colombatti G.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Sueva G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Castrumfavara 86 / 100
Sambiase 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Castrumfavara Sambiase

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Castrumfavara Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Solid form: Castrumfavara remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Castrumfavara found the back of the net in 70% of recent matches (30 games).

Sambiase has conceded goals in 67% of their last 30 outings.

H2H data points to 2.25 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Castrumfavara VS Sambiase
1.75 Goals Scored 1.5
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.88
88% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Castrumfavara

(Home)
03 May
Castrumfavara
2 : 2
Enna
26 Apr
Paterno
1 : 3
Castrumfavara
19 Apr
Castrumfavara
3 : 1
Gela
12 Apr
Athletic Palermo
0 : 3
Castrumfavara
02 Apr
Castrumfavara
1 : 1
AS Acireale
Page 1 of 6

Sambiase

(Away)
08 Aug
Salernitana
2 : 1
Sambiase
03 May
Reggina
4 : 2
Sambiase
26 Apr
Sambiase
1 : 1
Nissa
19 Apr
Milazzo
0 : 1
Sambiase
12 Apr
Enna
1 : 1
Sambiase
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 A.C. Savoia 34 20 9 5 63:29 69
2 Nissa 34 19 10 5 51:27 67
3 Reggina 34 20 6 8 44:23 66
4 Athletic Palermo 34 18 6 10 59:47 60
5 Gelbison 34 17 9 8 44:32 60
6 Sambiase 34 14 11 9 38:30 53
7 Igea Virtus 34 15 13 6 49:36 53
8 Milazzo 34 12 8 14 31:36 44
9 Gela 34 13 5 16 41:44 43
10 Lamezia 34 11 9 14 43:35 42
11 Castrumfavara 34 10 8 16 38:47 38
12 Enna 34 8 12 14 50:53 36
13 Vibonese 34 8 11 15 32:47 35
14 USD Ragusa 34 7 13 14 23:34 34
15 ACR Messina 34 11 13 10 28:33 32
16 AS Acireale 34 7 12 15 37:50 32
17 Sancataldese 34 7 8 19 31:49 29
18 Paterno 34 4 7 23 22:72 19
Promotion - Serie D - Group I 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group I 2025/2026 (Play Out)