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Caudal Deportivo vs Covadonga

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 2 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

41' Event
Acerete C.
45' Event
Arias A.
90' Event
Acerete C.

AI Match Summary

Caudal Deportivo in this Tercera RFEF - Group 2 2025/2026 tie, finishing 2-1. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Caudal Deportivo
20%
Draws
29%
Covadonga
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Caudal Deportivo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Covadonga have won more games recently than Caudal Deportivo.
  • Win probability leans Caudal Deportivo's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Covadonga arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Caudal Deportivo, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Caudal Deportivo have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Caudal Deportivo Clean Sheet 68%
Covadonga Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Caudal Deportivo Covadonga
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 17 18
Draws 2 5
Losses 9 6
Goals Scored 1.64 2.45
Goals Conceded 1.07 0.93
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 7, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 2
Covadonga vs Caudal Deportivo
2:4
May 31, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 2
Caudal Deportivo vs Covadonga
2:1
Mar 22, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 2
Caudal Deportivo vs Covadonga
2:1
Nov 9, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 2
Covadonga vs Caudal Deportivo
1:0
Apr 27, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 2
Caudal Deportivo vs Covadonga
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Caudal Deportivo Compare

Top Goalscorer Acerete C.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Covadonga Compare

Top Goalscorer Arias A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Caudal Deportivo 95 / 100
Covadonga 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Caudal Deportivo Covadonga

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Caudal Deportivo Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Caudal Deportivo scored in 75% of their last 28 outings.

H2H data points to 2.80 goals as a typical output.

Caudal Deportivo went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Difficult form: Covadonga registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Caudal Deportivo VS Covadonga
1.63 Goals Scored 1.13
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.88
88% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Caudal Deportivo

(Home)
06 Sept
Astur
0 : 3
Caudal Deportivo
19 Aug
Real Oviedo B
1 : 0
Caudal Deportivo
12 Aug
Caudal Deportivo
2 : 1
Leonesa B
05 Aug
Club Siero
2 : 1
Caudal Deportivo
20 Jun
Caudal Deportivo
1 : 1
Atletico Central
Page 1 of 6

Covadonga

(Away)
06 Sept
Covadonga
4 : 0
Aviles Stadium
29 Aug
Gijon Industrial
0 : 0
Covadonga
05 Aug
Real Oviedo B
6 : 0
Covadonga
07 Jun
Covadonga
2 : 4
Caudal Deportivo
31 May
Caudal Deportivo
2 : 1
Covadonga
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Covadonga 2
CD Mosconia 1
Gijon B 1
Caudal Deportivo 2
Final
Covadonga 3
Caudal Deportivo 6