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Cayon CD vs SD Noja

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Tercera RFEF - Group 3 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

28' Event
Cagigas C.
38' Event
Lopez J.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 3 2025/2026 game between Cayon CD and SD Noja finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Cayon CD.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

58%
Cayon CD
30%
Draws
12%
SD Noja
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Cayon CD

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Cayon CD come out ahead of SD Noja on wins alone.
  • Cayon CD are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 97%
Over 1.5 Goals 87%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 54.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66.6%
Cayon CD Clean Sheet 20%
SD Noja Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Cayon CD SD Noja
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 16 4
Draws 4 5
Losses 11 21
Goals Scored 1.42 0.7
Goals Conceded 1.13 2.03
Expected Goals (xG) 2.31 1.12
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 14, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
Cayon CD vs SD Noja
2:0
Oct 5, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
SD Noja vs Cayon CD
1:2
Mar 4, 2012 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
SD Noja vs Cayon CD
0:1
Oct 8, 2011 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
Cayon CD vs SD Noja
0:4
Feb 20, 2011 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
SD Noja vs Cayon CD
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Cayon CD Compare

Top Goalscorer Cagigas C.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Lopez J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.78
Avg xA / game 1.16

SD Noja Compare

Avg xG / game 1.02
Avg xA / game 0.62

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Cayon CD 85 / 100
SD Noja 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Cayon CD SD Noja

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Cayon CD Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

SD Noja's defensive record shows goals conceded in 83% of 30 matches.

Attacking prowess: Cayon CD scored in 71% of their last 31 outings.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

Recent resilience: Cayon CD stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Cayon CD VS SD Noja
1.63 Goals Scored 0.86
1.38 Goals Conceded 3
88% Over 1.5 86%
63% Over 2.5 86%
38% Over 3.5 71%

Recent Form & Match History

Cayon CD

(Home)
12 Sept
Guarnizo
0 : 1
Cayon CD
05 Sept
Cayon CD
0 : 1
Vimenor
29 Aug
CD Revilla
0 : 0
Cayon CD
26 Aug
Cayon CD
4 : 1
Bansander
21 Aug
Selaya
0 : 3
Cayon CD
Page 1 of 7

SD Noja

(Away)
09 May
SD Noja
2 : 2
UC Cartes
01 May
Gimnastic de Torrelavega
6 : 0
SD Noja
26 Apr
SD Noja
0 : 1
CD Revilla
18 Apr
Guarnizo
4 : 1
SD Noja
12 Apr
SD Noja
2 : 2
CD Colindres
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Gimnastic de Torrelavega 34 26 5 3 86:15 83
2 CD Laredo 34 21 8 5 63:28 71
3 CD Tropezon 34 21 4 9 50:27 67
4 Guarnizo 34 19 9 6 47:26 66
5 UM Escobedo 34 21 2 11 65:43 65
6 Vimenor 34 17 8 9 47:36 59
7 Atletico Albericia 34 17 5 12 61:45 56
8 Cayon CD 34 17 5 12 50:41 56
9 Torina 34 15 8 11 39:40 53
10 Bezana 34 13 8 13 43:38 47
11 Castro 34 10 8 16 44:47 38
12 Selaya 34 8 8 18 32:44 32
13 CD Revilla 34 8 7 19 35:63 31
14 CD Barquereno 34 8 6 20 37:64 30
15 UC Cartes 34 6 10 18 28:52 28
16 CD Colindres 34 6 10 18 27:47 28
17 CD Montanas del Pas 34 6 8 20 35:87 26
18 SD Noja 34 4 7 23 22:68 19
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 3 2025/2026 (Play Offs)