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CD Aluvion vs Murchante

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Tercera Division - Group 15 2010/2011
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The Tercera Division - Group 15 2010/2011 game between CD Aluvion and Murchante finished 1-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Murchante.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

6%
CD Aluvion
20%
Draws
74%
Murchante
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Murchante

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

74% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Murchante come out ahead of CD Aluvion on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Murchante's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Murchante have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
CD Aluvion Clean Sheet 20%
Murchante Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric CD Aluvion Murchante
Matches Played 30 32
Wins 2 11
Draws 6 5
Losses 22 16
Goals Scored 0.83 0.97
Goals Conceded 2.4 1.56
Expected Goals (xG) 1.23 1.05
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 1, 2012 Tercera RFEF - Group 15
Murchante vs CD Aluvion
1:0
Nov 6, 2011 Tercera RFEF - Group 15
CD Aluvion vs Murchante
0:1
Jan 30, 2011 Tercera RFEF - Group 15
CD Aluvion vs Murchante
1:3
Sep 19, 2010 Tercera RFEF - Group 15
Murchante vs CD Aluvion
1:1
Mar 21, 2010 Tercera RFEF - Group 15
Murchante vs CD Aluvion
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

CD Aluvion 10 / 100
Murchante 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
CD Aluvion Murchante

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Murchante Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Murchante conceded in 78% of 32 recent games.

Historical meetings average 1.80 goals per match.

Attacking prowess: CD Aluvion scored in 53% of their last 30 outings.

CD Aluvion went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

- VS Murchante
0 Goals Scored 1
0 Goals Conceded 1.25
0% Over 1.5 75%
0% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

CD Aluvion

(Home)
12 May
Mutilvera
2 : 0
CD Aluvion
06 May
CD Aluvion
1 : 3
Cirbonero
27 Apr
Aoiz
3 : 1
CD Aluvion
22 Apr
CD Aluvion
0 : 6
Tudelano
14 Apr
Cortes
1 : 1
CD Aluvion
Page 1 of 6

Murchante

(Away)
30 Apr
Murchante
1 : 0
CD Gares
24 Apr
Pamplona
0 : 0
Murchante
10 Apr
Murchante
2 : 1
Ezcabarte
03 Apr
CD Beti Onak
0 : 1
Murchante
27 Mar
Murchante
2 : 1
CD Corellano
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Tudelano 38 28 6 4 87:24 90
2 Izarra 38 25 8 5 78:24 83
3 Valle Egues 38 19 9 10 57:46 66
4 Mutilvera 38 19 9 10 60:34 66
5 Txantrea 38 18 11 9 58:35 65
6 Iruna 38 16 13 9 52:36 61
7 AD San Juan 38 12 20 6 38:30 56
8 Cirbonero 38 15 8 15 51:46 53
9 CD Lourdes 38 15 8 15 52:56 53
10 Oberena 38 14 10 14 42:39 52
11 Pamplona 38 12 13 13 51:51 49
12 Murchante 38 11 12 15 48:57 45
13 Huarte 38 10 14 14 45:50 44
14 Aoiz 38 10 12 16 37:49 42
15 CD Aluvion 38 9 14 15 34:44 41
16 Idoya 38 10 11 17 51:78 41
17 CD Ardoi 38 9 11 18 29:57 38
18 Lagun Artea 38 10 7 21 40:79 37
19 CD River Ega 38 7 6 25 26:73 27
20 Pena Azagresa 38 5 10 23 34:62 25
Promotion - Tercera Division - Play Offs 2010/2011 (Main)
Promotion - Tercera Division - Promotion Play Offs 2010/2011 (Main)