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CD Ariznabarra vs Somorrostro

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Tercera Division - Group 4 2020/2021
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

CD Ariznabarra in this Tercera Division - Group 4 2020/2021 matchup, with the score ending 4-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored CD Ariznabarra.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
CD Ariznabarra
20%
Draws
57%
Somorrostro
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Somorrostro

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Somorrostro have won more games recently than CD Ariznabarra.
  • Somorrostro are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Tercera Division - Group 4 2020/2021 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%
CD Ariznabarra Clean Sheet 14%
Somorrostro Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric CD Ariznabarra Somorrostro
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 5 8
Draws 9 9
Losses 16 13
Goals Scored 0.9 1.23
Goals Conceded 1.57 1.33
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 5, 2021 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Somorrostro vs CD Ariznabarra
1:1
May 2, 2021 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
CD Ariznabarra vs Somorrostro
4:2
Mar 7, 2020 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Somorrostro vs CD Ariznabarra
3:0
Oct 13, 2019 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
CD Ariznabarra vs Somorrostro
1:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

CD Ariznabarra 10 / 100
Somorrostro 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
CD Ariznabarra Somorrostro

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Somorrostro Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.50 goals as a typical output.

Defensive concern: Somorrostro conceded in 77% of 30 recent games.

Attacking prowess: CD Ariznabarra scored in 53% of their last 30 outings.

CD Ariznabarra went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

CD Ariznabarra VS Somorrostro
1.5 Goals Scored 1.38
1.88 Goals Conceded 1.13
88% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

CD Ariznabarra

(Home)
12 Jun
CD Ariznabarra
2 : 3
Balmaseda
05 Jun
Somorrostro
1 : 1
CD Ariznabarra
29 May
CD Ariznabarra
5 : 1
Urgatzi
22 May
Tolosa
4 : 0
CD Ariznabarra
16 May
CD Ariznabarra
1 : 2
Aurrera Ondarroa
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Somorrostro

(Away)
29 Aug
Santurtzi
1 : 3
Somorrostro
12 Jun
Sodupe
1 : 3
Somorrostro
05 Jun
Somorrostro
1 : 1
CD Ariznabarra
29 May
Lagun Onak
2 : 1
Somorrostro
22 May
Somorrostro
3 : 0
Santurtzi
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