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CD Azuaga vs Montehermoso

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

22' Event
Marquez A.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2025/2026 game between CD Azuaga and Montehermoso finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward CD Azuaga.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

70%
CD Azuaga
20%
Draws
10%
Montehermoso
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: CD Azuaga

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / High Confidence
  • CD Azuaga carry the better recent record into this one.
  • CD Azuaga are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 41%
Over 4.5 Goals 18%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
CD Azuaga Clean Sheet 68%
Montehermoso Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric CD Azuaga Montehermoso
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 16 5
Draws 6 7
Losses 8 18
Goals Scored 1.53 0.77
Goals Conceded 0.9 2
Expected Goals (xG) 2.25 0.73
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 14, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
CD Azuaga vs Montehermoso
1:0
Oct 5, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Montehermoso vs CD Azuaga
2:1
Feb 4, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Montehermoso vs CD Azuaga
1:1
Sep 24, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
CD Azuaga vs Montehermoso
0:0
Apr 2, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
CD Azuaga vs Montehermoso
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

CD Azuaga Compare

Top Goalscorer Marquez A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.73
Avg xA / game 1.13

Montehermoso Compare

Avg xG / game 0.66
Avg xA / game 0.41

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

CD Azuaga 95 / 100
Montehermoso 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
CD Azuaga Montehermoso

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CD Azuaga Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

CD Azuaga found the back of the net in 83% of recent matches (30 games).

Montehermoso's defensive record shows goals conceded in 83% of 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 1.80 goals per match.

Recent resilience: CD Azuaga stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

CD Azuaga VS Montehermoso
1.63 Goals Scored 0.71
0.75 Goals Conceded 2.86
63% Over 1.5 86%
25% Over 2.5 86%
25% Over 3.5 57%

Recent Form & Match History

CD Azuaga

(Home)
13 Sept
CD Azuaga
2 : 0
Montijo
06 Sept
SP Villafranca
1 : 4
CD Azuaga
23 May
Moralo
0 : 0
CD Azuaga
17 May
CD Azuaga
0 : 1
Moralo
10 May
Pueblonuevo
1 : 0
CD Azuaga
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Montehermoso

(Away)
10 May
Jerez CF
5 : 1
Montehermoso
03 May
Montehermoso
0 : 3
Villanovense
26 Apr
Cabeza del Buey
2 : 1
Montehermoso
19 Apr
Montehermoso
2 : 2
AD Llerenense
12 Apr
CD Badajoz
4 : 0
Montehermoso
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Don Benito 34 21 8 5 70:22 71
2 CD Badajoz 34 23 5 6 64:27 71
3 Moralo 34 17 11 6 54:32 62
4 CD Azuaga 34 18 8 8 53:31 62
5 Jaraiz 34 16 11 7 53:33 59
6 Cabeza del Buey 34 15 12 7 45:29 57
7 SP Villafranca 34 16 7 11 45:40 55
8 Villanovense 34 15 8 11 45:36 53
9 Montijo 34 13 7 14 43:42 46
10 Jerez CF 34 8 17 9 56:51 41
11 AD Llerenense 34 11 8 15 35:44 41
12 Puebla de la Calzada 34 9 11 14 35:48 38
13 Santa Amalia 34 9 7 18 30:52 34
14 Gevora 34 8 9 17 32:53 33
15 Pueblonuevo 34 9 6 19 29:55 33
16 CD Diocesano 34 6 12 16 33:63 30
17 Montehermoso 34 5 8 21 24:66 23
18 CD Calamonte 34 3 13 18 25:47 22
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2025/2026 (Play Offs)