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CD Diocesano vs Jerez CF

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2025/2026
CD Diocesano Logo

CD Diocesano

1 - 5
FT
Jerez CF Logo

Jerez CF

Our Tip

Match Events

52' Event
Ferrera M.
61' Event
Chavez C.
(Penalty)
64' Event
Chavez C.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2025/2026 game between CD Diocesano and Jerez CF finished 1-5, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Jerez CF.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
CD Diocesano
30%
Draws
41%
Jerez CF
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Jerez CF

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

41% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Jerez CF come out ahead of CD Diocesano on wins alone.
  • 41% — that's where the model lands on Jerez CF taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 36.400000000000006%
CD Diocesano Clean Sheet 11%
Jerez CF Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric CD Diocesano Jerez CF
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 5 8
Draws 9 12
Losses 16 9
Goals Scored 0.87 1.72
Goals Conceded 1.93 1.62
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 1.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 18, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
CD Diocesano vs Jerez CF
1:5
Sep 7, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Jerez CF vs CD Diocesano
0:0
Mar 23, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
CD Diocesano vs Jerez CF
4:1
Nov 10, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Jerez CF vs CD Diocesano
0:2
May 12, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
CD Diocesano vs Jerez CF
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

CD Diocesano Compare

Top Goalscorer Morales J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78

Jerez CF Compare

Top Goalscorer Ferrera M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Chavez C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.65
Avg xA / game 1.01

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

CD Diocesano 10 / 100
Jerez CF 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
CD Diocesano Jerez CF

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Jerez CF Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Jerez CF let in goals in 86% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 3.20 goals.

CD Diocesano found the back of the net in 60% of recent matches (30 games).

Recent resilience: CD Diocesano stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

CD Diocesano VS Jerez CF
1.25 Goals Scored 1.38
2.25 Goals Conceded 1.88
75% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

CD Diocesano

(Home)
10 May
CD Diocesano
4 : 4
SP Villafranca
03 May
Don Benito
8 : 1
CD Diocesano
26 Apr
CD Diocesano
0 : 0
Santa Amalia
19 Apr
CD Azuaga
2 : 0
CD Diocesano
12 Apr
CD Diocesano
2 : 1
Gevora
Page 1 of 6

Jerez CF

(Away)
27 Sept
CD Azuaga
2 : 0
Jerez CF
20 Sept
Jerez CF
1 : 2
Castuera
13 Sept
Cabeza del Buey
0 : 1
Jerez CF
06 Sept
Jerez CF
2 : 2
Puebla de la Calzada
10 May
Jerez CF
5 : 1
Montehermoso
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Don Benito 34 21 8 5 70:22 71
2 CD Badajoz 34 23 5 6 64:27 71
3 Moralo 34 17 11 6 54:32 62
4 CD Azuaga 34 18 8 8 53:31 62
5 Jaraiz 34 16 11 7 53:33 59
6 Cabeza del Buey 34 15 12 7 45:29 57
7 SP Villafranca 34 16 7 11 45:40 55
8 Villanovense 34 15 8 11 45:36 53
9 Montijo 34 13 7 14 43:42 46
10 Jerez CF 34 8 17 9 56:51 41
11 AD Llerenense 34 11 8 15 35:44 41
12 Puebla de la Calzada 34 9 11 14 35:48 38
13 Santa Amalia 34 9 7 18 30:52 34
14 Gevora 34 8 9 17 32:53 33
15 Pueblonuevo 34 9 6 19 29:55 33
16 CD Diocesano 34 6 12 16 33:63 30
17 Montehermoso 34 5 8 21 24:66 23
18 CD Calamonte 34 3 13 18 25:47 22
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2025/2026 (Play Offs)