Sport Picks
CD Diocesano vs Puebla de la Calzada - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Spain
Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2025/2026 
Match Events
44'
44'
Bermejo V.
AI Match Summary
The Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2025/2026 game between CD Diocesano and Puebla de la Calzada finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward CD Diocesano.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
25%
35%
40%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Puebla de la Calzada
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
40%
/ Low Confidence
- Puebla de la Calzada carry the better recent record into this one.
- Win probability leans Puebla de la Calzada's way, sitting at 90%.
- Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 80.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
CD Diocesano Clean Sheet 10%
Puebla de la Calzada Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | CD Diocesano | Puebla de la Calzada |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 5 | 7 |
| Draws | 9 | 9 |
| Losses | 16 | 14 |
| Goals Scored | 0.87 | 1.07 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.93 | 1.47 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.58 | 1.85 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Mar 29, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
CD Diocesano vs Puebla de la Calzada
1:0
Nov 16, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Puebla de la Calzada vs CD Diocesano
2:1
May 4, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
CD Diocesano vs Puebla de la Calzada
2:1
Dec 22, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Puebla de la Calzada vs CD Diocesano
2:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
CD Diocesano Compare
Top Goalscorer Bermejo V.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.22
Avg xA / game 0.79
Puebla de la Calzada Compare
Avg xG / game 1.68
Avg xA / game 1.03
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
CD Diocesano 10 / 100
Puebla de la Calzada 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
CD Diocesano Puebla de la Calzada
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Puebla de la Calzada Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Defensive concern: Puebla de la Calzada conceded in 87% of 30 recent games.
CD Diocesano scored in 60% of their last 30 games.
Games between these two average 2.50 goals.
CD Diocesano went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
CD Diocesano VS Puebla de la Calzada
1.29 Goals Scored 1.13
2.57 Goals Conceded 1.88
86% Over 1.5 75%
57% Over 2.5 50%
29% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
CD Diocesano
(Home) 10 May
CD Diocesano
4 : 4 SP Villafranca
03 May
Don Benito
8 : 1 CD Diocesano
26 Apr
CD Diocesano
0 : 0 Santa Amalia
19 Apr
CD Azuaga
2 : 0 CD Diocesano
12 Apr
CD Diocesano
2 : 1 Gevora
Page 1 of 6
10 May
CD Diocesano
4 : 4 SP Villafranca
26 Apr
CD Diocesano
0 : 0 Santa Amalia
12 Apr
CD Diocesano
2 : 1 Gevora
29 Mar
CD Diocesano
1 : 0 Puebla de la Calzada
15 Mar
CD Diocesano
0 : 0 Montehermoso
Page 1 of 3
Puebla de la Calzada
(Away) 03 Oct
Pueblonuevo
0 : 0 Puebla de la Calzada
27 Sept
Puebla de la Calzada
1 : 2 Quintana
19 Sept
UP Plasencia
0 : 3 Puebla de la Calzada
13 Sept
Puebla de la Calzada
2 : 0 Castuera
06 Sept
Jerez CF
2 : 2 Puebla de la Calzada
Page 1 of 6
03 Oct
Pueblonuevo
0 : 0 Puebla de la Calzada
19 Sept
UP Plasencia
0 : 3 Puebla de la Calzada
06 Sept
Jerez CF
2 : 2 Puebla de la Calzada
10 May
Cabeza del Buey
1 : 0 Puebla de la Calzada
26 Apr
CD Badajoz
5 : 0 Puebla de la Calzada
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Don Benito | 34 | 21 | 8 | 5 | 70:22 | 71 |
| 2 | CD Badajoz | 34 | 23 | 5 | 6 | 64:27 | 71 |
| 3 | Moralo | 34 | 17 | 11 | 6 | 54:32 | 62 |
| 4 | CD Azuaga | 34 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 53:31 | 62 |
| 5 | Jaraiz | 34 | 16 | 11 | 7 | 53:33 | 59 |
| 6 | Cabeza del Buey | 34 | 15 | 12 | 7 | 45:29 | 57 |
| 7 | SP Villafranca | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 45:40 | 55 |
| 8 | Villanovense | 34 | 15 | 8 | 11 | 45:36 | 53 |
| 9 | Montijo | 34 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 43:42 | 46 |
| 10 | Jerez CF | 34 | 8 | 17 | 9 | 56:51 | 41 |
| 11 | AD Llerenense | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 35:44 | 41 |
| 12 | Puebla de la Calzada | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 35:48 | 38 |
| 13 | Santa Amalia | 34 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 30:52 | 34 |
| 14 | Gevora | 34 | 8 | 9 | 17 | 32:53 | 33 |
| 15 | Pueblonuevo | 34 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 29:55 | 33 |
| 16 | CD Diocesano | 34 | 6 | 12 | 16 | 33:63 | 30 |
| 17 | Montehermoso | 34 | 5 | 8 | 21 | 24:66 | 23 |
| 18 | CD Calamonte | 34 | 3 | 13 | 18 | 25:47 | 22 |
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
