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CD Marino vs Arucas

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Tercera RFEF - Group 12 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

57' Event
Matias G.
69' Event
Asdrubal F.
90' Event
Almeida A.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 12 2025/2026 game between CD Marino and Arucas finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Arucas.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

12%
CD Marino
30%
Draws
58%
Arucas
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Arucas

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Arucas have managed 0.97 goals a game lately — CD Marino are scoring more at 1.23.
  • Model gives Arucas a 58% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 12 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.2%
CD Marino Clean Sheet 23%
Arucas Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric CD Marino Arucas
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 6 6
Draws 15 11
Losses 10 13
Goals Scored 1.23 0.97
Goals Conceded 1.35 1.43
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 10, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
CD Marino vs Arucas
1:2
Jan 10, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Arucas vs CD Marino
1:4
May 4, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
CD Marino vs Arucas
0:0
Dec 21, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Arucas vs CD Marino
1:1
May 11, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Arucas vs CD Marino
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

CD Marino Compare

Top Goalscorer Matias G.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Arucas Compare

Top Goalscorer Asdrubal F.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Almeida A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

CD Marino 10 / 100
Arucas 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
CD Marino Arucas

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Arucas Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Arucas's defensive record shows goals conceded in 80% of 30 matches.

CD Marino scored in 65% of their last 31 games.

These sides typically produce 2.40 goals when they meet.

CD Marino has registered 1 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

CD Marino VS Arucas
0.5 Goals Scored 0.88
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.63
63% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

CD Marino

(Home)
08 Aug
Tenerife B
4 : 1
CD Marino
26 Jul
CD Marino
0 : 6
Tenerife
10 May
CD Marino
1 : 2
Arucas
01 May
Villa Santa Brigida
3 : 0
CD Marino
26 Apr
CD Marino
0 : 0
Union Sur Yaiza
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Arucas

(Away)
10 May
CD Marino
1 : 2
Arucas
03 May
Arucas
0 : 1
Mensajero
25 Apr
Tenerife C
1 : 1
Arucas
22 Apr
Union Sur Yaiza
3 : 0
Arucas
18 Apr
Arucas
0 : 0
San Bartolome
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Atletico Paso 34 18 13 3 51:19 67
2 UD San Fernando 34 19 9 6 49:23 66
3 Mensajero 34 18 9 7 51:31 63
4 Tamaraceite 34 19 6 9 56:36 63
5 Panaderia 34 15 10 9 47:33 55
6 Las Palmas C 34 15 9 10 58:42 54
7 Tenerife C 34 14 10 10 49:46 52
8 Villa Santa Brigida 34 15 5 14 42:35 50
9 Lanzarote 34 12 12 10 45:36 48
10 Real Union Tenerife 34 12 9 13 34:32 45
11 San Miguel 34 10 9 15 37:43 39
12 CD Marino 34 8 15 11 44:40 39
13 Union Sur Yaiza 34 10 8 16 33:43 38
14 San Bartolome 34 8 12 14 30:55 36
15 Arucas 34 7 12 15 31:47 33
16 Herbania 34 7 11 16 39:58 32
17 SD Tenisca 34 6 7 21 32:68 25
18 Telde 34 5 10 19 30:71 25
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 12 2025/2026 (Play Offs)