Sport Picks

Spain

Tercera Division - Group 14 2010/2011

Sp. Villanueva

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

CD Santa Marta play Sp. Villanueva in the Tercera Division - Group 14 2010/2011. It looks like a close match. Recently, CD Santa Marta averaged 0.77 goals scored and 1.47 conceded. Sp. Villanueva averaged 0.38 goals scored and 1.09 conceded. In past meetings, CD Santa Marta won 1, Sp. Villanueva won 3, and they drew 1. Their last match on May 15, 2011 ended 0:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.23 for CD Santa Marta and 0.61 for Sp. Villanueva. This points to a CD Santa Marta double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

53%

CD Santa Marta

20%

Draws

27%

Sp. Villanueva

Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: CD Santa Marta

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

81% / High Confidence

CD Santa Marta picked up more points recently compared to Sp. Villanueva.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.23 vs 0.61 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 49%

Over 2.5 Goals 30%

Over 3.5 Goals 18%

Over 4.5 Goals 9%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 36%

CD Santa Marta Clean Sheet 29%

Sp. Villanueva Clean Sheet 12%

First Half Goal 44%

Second Half Goal 47%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	CD Santa Marta	Sp. Villanueva
Matches Played	30	32
Wins	7	2
Draws	6	6
Losses	17	24
Goals Scored	0.77	0.38
Goals Conceded	1.47	1.09

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 15, 2011 Tercera RFEF - Group 14

CD Santa Marta vs Sp. Villanueva

Possession: 42% - 48% Cards: 4 - 3

0:2

Dec 23, 2010 Tercera RFEF - Group 14

Sp. Villanueva vs CD Santa Marta

Possession: 41% - 51% Cards: 1 - 0

0:1

Mar 28, 2010 Tercera RFEF - Group 14

Sp. Villanueva vs CD Santa Marta

Possession: 55% - 53% Cards: 2 - 2

0:0

Nov 15, 2009 Tercera RFEF - Group 14

CD Santa Marta vs Sp. Villanueva

Possession: 54% - 58% Cards: 1 - 3

1:2

May 10, 2009 Tercera RFEF - Group 14

Sp. Villanueva vs CD Santa Marta

Possession: 50% - 51% Cards: 4 - 4

3:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

CD Santa Marta 54 / 100

Sp. Villanueva 27 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

CD Santa Marta Sp. Villanueva

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CD Santa Marta Win (1)

Secondary Pick CD Santa Marta & Under 3.5

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +17.7%

2.22

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +25.1%

4.17

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

CD Santa Marta attacking → ← attacking Sp. Villanueva

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

CD Santa Marta scored in 60% of their last 30 games.

Sp. Villanueva let in goals in 88% of their last 32 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

CD Santa Marta went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Sp. Villanueva lost 5 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

27 Points in last 5 12

0.00 Goals expected (xG) 0.13

0.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.25

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Villanovense	38	29	6	3	83:30	93
2	Sp. Villanueva	38	29	5	4	81:24	92
3	Arroyo	38	20	10	8	62:36	70
4	Jerez CF	38	18	10	10	61:32	64
5	Merida UD	38	15	13	10	48:32	58
6	Santa Amalia	38	15	11	12	55:49	56
7	Don Benito	38	16	8	14	48:47	56
8	Moralo	38	14	12	12	47:45	54
9	Miajadas	38	15	9	14	38:41	54
10	Sanvicenteno	38	13	12	13	47:39	51
11	Ciduad de Plasencia	38	14	7	17	41:47	49
12	Diter Zafra	38	13	10	15	45:50	49
13	UP Plasencia	38	11	14	13	39:48	47
14	CD Coria	38	12	11	15	42:52	47
15	Atletico San Jose Promesas	38	12	8	18	52:61	44
16	UD Badajoz	38	12	6	20	53:68	42
17	Valdelacalzada	38	10	9	19	38:52	39
18	CD Santa Marta	38	9	8	21	34:58	35
19	Olivenza CP	38	6	12	20	39:72	30
20	Imperio Merida	38	5	3	30	28:98	18