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Ceara vs Fortaleza - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Cearense Castelão, Fortaleza
Sun, Mar 8, 2026
1 - 2
09:00 PM
Our Tip

Match Events

24'
Rodrigo
27'
Britez E.
29' Event
Luiz Otavio
Assist: Matheus Araujo

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 1-2. The second leg ended 1-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Ceara
35%
Draws
34%
Fortaleza
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Fortaleza come out ahead of Ceara on wins alone.
  • 42% — that's where the model lands on Ceara taking it.
  • Fortaleza arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Ceara, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
Ceara Clean Sheet 68%
Fortaleza Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ceara Fortaleza
Matches Played 34 35
Wins 15 17
Draws 6 9
Losses 13 9
Goals Scored 1.56 1.17
Goals Conceded 1.21 0.86
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 13, 2026 Serie B
Fortaleza vs Ceara
1:1
May 17, 2026 Serie B
Ceara vs Fortaleza
2:1
Apr 9, 2026 Copa do Nordeste
Ceara vs Fortaleza
2:0
Mar 8, 2026 Cearense
Ceara vs Fortaleza
1:2
Mar 1, 2026 Cearense
Fortaleza vs Ceara
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ceara Compare

Top Goalscorer Luiz Otavio
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Fortaleza Compare

Top Goalscorer Luiz Fernando
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ceara 51 / 100
Fortaleza 48 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ceara Fortaleza

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ceara scored in 71% of their last 34 games.

These sides typically produce 2.40 goals when they meet.

Ceara went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Fortaleza's defensive record shows goals conceded in 54% of 35 matches.

Scoring Trends

Ceara VS Fortaleza
1.38 Goals Scored 1.38
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.75
88% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Ceara

(Home)
03 Oct
Avai
0 : 1
Ceara
26 Sept
Operario-PR
2 : 2
Ceara
18 Sept
Ceara
2 : 1
Novorizontino
13 Sept
Fortaleza
1 : 1
Ceara
10 Sept
Atletico GO
2 : 1
Ceara
Page 1 of 7

Fortaleza

(Away)
07 Oct
America MG
0 : 1
Fortaleza
03 Oct
Fortaleza
1 : 1
Nautico
27 Sept
Fortaleza
2 : 2
Athletic Club
20 Sept
Londrina
1 : 2
Fortaleza
13 Sept
Fortaleza
1 : 1
Ceara
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Ferroviario 0
Fortaleza 4
Floresta EC 0
Ceara 7
Final
Fortaleza 3
Ceara 2
Ferroviario 1
Floresta EC 0