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Ceara vs Fortaleza

Brazil Brazil

Cearense Castelão, Fortaleza
Sun, Mar 8, 2026
1 - 2
09:00 PM
Our Tip

Match Events

24'
Rodrigo
27'
Britez E.
29' Event
Luiz Otavio
Assist: Matheus Araujo

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 1-2. The second leg ended 1-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Ceara
30%
Draws
33%
Fortaleza
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Ceara

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Fortaleza come out ahead of Ceara on wins alone.
  • 37% — that's where the model lands on Ceara taking it.
  • Fortaleza arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Ceara, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Ceara Clean Sheet 68%
Fortaleza Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ceara Fortaleza
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 9 14
Draws 9 6
Losses 11 10
Goals Scored 1.24 1.23
Goals Conceded 1.24 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 17, 2026 Serie B
Ceara vs Fortaleza
2:1
Apr 9, 2026 Copa do Nordeste
Ceara vs Fortaleza
2:0
Mar 8, 2026 Cearense
Ceara vs Fortaleza
1:2
Mar 1, 2026 Cearense
Fortaleza vs Ceara
1:1
Feb 8, 2026 Cearense
Ceara vs Fortaleza
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ceara Compare

Top Goalscorer Luiz Otavio
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47

Fortaleza Compare

Top Goalscorer Luiz Fernando
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ceara 68 / 100
Fortaleza 19 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ceara Fortaleza

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CEA Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ceara scored in 69% of their last 29 games.

Fortaleza's defensive record shows goals conceded in 63% of 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Recent resilience: Ceara stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Ceara VS Fortaleza
0.88 Goals Scored 1
1.25 Goals Conceded 1
63% Over 1.5 63%
13% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Ceara

(Home)
07 Aug
Ceara
2 : 0
Ponte Preta
26 Jul
Sao Bernardo
3 : 4
Ceara
22 Jul
Ceara
0 : 1
CRB
17 Jul
America MG
1 : 1
Ceara
13 Jul
Ceara
0 : 0
Athletic Club
Page 1 of 6

Fortaleza

(Away)
09 Aug
Cuiaba
1 : 1
Fortaleza
06 Aug
Fortaleza
3 : 2
Palmeiras
02 Aug
Palmeiras
3 : 0
Fortaleza
29 Jul
Fortaleza
1 : 0
Botafogo SP
22 Jul
Vila Nova FC
2 : 1
Fortaleza
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Ferroviario 0
Fortaleza 4
Floresta EC 0
Ceara 7
Final
Fortaleza 3
Ceara 2
Ferroviario 1
Floresta EC 0