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Cebrayil vs Mingachevir

Azerbaijan Azerbaijan

I Liqa 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

21' Event
Huseynli S.
45' Event
Achimi D.
55' Event
Kalunga K.

AI Match Summary

Cebrayil in this I Liqa 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Cebrayil.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

21%
Cebrayil
15%
Draws
64%
Mingachevir
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Mingachevir

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence
  • Cebrayil haven't matched Mingachevir's recent run of results.
  • 64% — that's where the model lands on Mingachevir taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
Cebrayil Clean Sheet 10%
Mingachevir Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Cebrayil Mingachevir
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 8 17
Draws 4 6
Losses 18 8
Goals Scored 1.4 1.97
Goals Conceded 2 1.16
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 2.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 22, 2026 I Liqa
Cebrayil vs Mingachevir
2:1
Dec 10, 2025 I Liqa
Mingachevir vs Cebrayil
2:0
Sep 17, 2025 I Liqa
Cebrayil vs Mingachevir
1:3
Apr 17, 2025 I Liqa
Cebrayil vs Mingachevir
2:0
Feb 13, 2025 I Liqa
Mingachevir vs Cebrayil
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Cebrayil Compare

Top Goalscorer Huseynli S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Achimi D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Mingachevir Compare

Top Goalscorer Kalunga K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.94
Avg xA / game 1.18

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Cebrayil 10 / 100
Mingachevir 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Cebrayil Mingachevir

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MIN Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:3
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Cebrayil scored in 70% of their last 30 games.

Defensive concern: Mingachevir conceded in 71% of 31 recent games.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

Recent resilience: Cebrayil stayed unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Cebrayil VS Mingachevir
1.25 Goals Scored 2.38
1.88 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Cebrayil

(Home)
21 May
Cebrayil
2 : 3
Shimal
15 May
Safa Baku
1 : 0
Cebrayil
07 May
Cebrayil
2 : 3
Baku Sporting
30 Apr
Sabail
6 : 0
Cebrayil
22 Apr
Cebrayil
2 : 1
Mingachevir
Page 1 of 6

Mingachevir

(Away)
28 May
Gabala
2 : 0
Mingachevir
22 May
Mingachevir
4 : 1
Sabail
15 May
Mingachevir
3 : 1
MOIK Baku
05 May
Sahdag Qusar
2 : 0
Mingachevir
29 Apr
Mingachevir
7 : 1
Zaqatala PFK
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Safa Baku 27 16 9 2 52:21 57
2 Mingachevir 27 15 6 6 55:27 51
3 Sabail 27 14 8 5 46:21 50
4 Baku Sporting 27 13 10 4 40:23 49
5 Sahdag Qusar 27 12 7 8 36:27 43
6 MOIK Baku 27 9 6 12 33:40 33
7 Zaqatala PFK 27 8 4 15 27:44 28
8 Cebrayil 27 7 3 17 40:56 24
9 Shimal 27 5 5 17 23:61 20
10 Difai Agsu 27 4 6 17 28:60 18
Promotion - Premier League (Main)
Promotion - Premier League 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - I Liqa 2025/2026 (Relegation)