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Ceilandense vs Real Brasilia

Brazil Brazil

Brasiliense 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

78' Event
Igor Carmino
83' Event
dos Santos Nascimento V.
90'
Juan Rocha

AI Match Summary

The Brasiliense 2025 game between Ceilandense and Real Brasilia finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Ceilandense
15%
Draws
51%
Real Brasilia
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Real Brasilia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Real Brasilia carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
  • Regular Brasiliense 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67%
Ceilandense Clean Sheet 19%
Real Brasilia Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ceilandense Real Brasilia
Matches Played 30 32
Wins 3 8
Draws 6 6
Losses 21 18
Goals Scored 0.6 1.03
Goals Conceded 2.23 1.44
Expected Goals (xG) 1.21 1.29
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 1, 2025 Brasiliense
Ceilandense vs Real Brasilia
1:1
Feb 9, 2024 Brasiliense
Real Brasilia vs Ceilandense
4:1
Feb 19, 2020 Brasiliense
Ceilandense vs Real Brasilia
1:2
Mar 7, 2012 Brasiliense
Real Brasilia vs Ceilandense
0:5
Feb 21, 2010 Brasiliense
Ceilandense vs Real Brasilia
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ceilandense Compare

Top Goalscorer Igor Carmino
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.93
Avg xA / game 0.6

Real Brasilia Compare

Top Goalscorer dos Santos Nascimento V.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.17
Avg xA / game 0.72

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ceilandense 32 / 100
Real Brasilia 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ceilandense Real Brasilia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Real Brasilia has conceded goals in 81% of their last 32 outings.

Historical meetings average 3.60 goals per match.

Real Brasilia lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Ceilandense's goal record stands at 40% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Ceilandense VS Real Brasilia
1.17 Goals Scored 0.75
1.83 Goals Conceded 1.25
83% Over 1.5 63%
33% Over 2.5 38%
33% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Ceilandense

(Home)
08 Mar
Ceilandense
1 : 3
Sobradinho
22 Feb
Samambaia
0 : 1
Ceilandense
16 Feb
Legiao
1 : 1
Ceilandense
12 Feb
Ceilandense
3 : 4
Paranoa
09 Feb
Brasiliense
2 : 0
Ceilandense
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Real Brasilia

(Away)
28 Feb
ARUC
1 : 4
Real Brasilia
22 Feb
Brasilia FC (DF)
0 : 2
Real Brasilia
11 Feb
Real Brasilia
0 : 3
Sobradinho
07 Feb
Real Brasilia
4 : 5
Paranoa
31 Jan
Ceilandia
2 : 0
Real Brasilia
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Brasiliense 9 7 1 1 15:4 22
2 Capital 9 6 2 1 17:5 20
3 Ceilandia 9 6 1 2 12:8 19
4 Gama 9 5 2 2 7:4 17
5 Paranoa 9 5 0 4 13:11 15
6 Sobradinho 9 3 3 3 9:6 12
7 Samambaia 9 3 2 4 9:8 11
8 Real Brasilia 9 1 2 6 6:15 5
9 Ceilandense 9 1 2 6 8:18 5
10 Legiao 9 0 1 8 3:20 1
Promotion - Brasiliense 2025 (Play Offs)