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Ceilandia vs Legiao

Brazil Brazil

Campeonato Brasiliense 2012
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

This match ends 2-0, with Ceilandia advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

49%
Ceilandia
35%
Draws
16%
Legiao
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Ceilandia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

49% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Ceilandia come out ahead of Legiao on wins alone.
  • Ceilandia are the model's pick here, at 60%.
  • Ceilandia have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Legiao, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Ceilandia here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Ceilandia Clean Sheet 18%
Legiao Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ceilandia Legiao
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 11 5
Draws 9 8
Losses 11 17
Goals Scored 1.29 1.03
Goals Conceded 1.16 1.53
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 13, 2025 Brasiliense
Legiao vs Ceilandia
1:2
Jan 18, 2014 Brasiliense
Ceilandia vs Legiao
1:2
Jan 20, 2013 Brasiliense
Legiao vs Ceilandia
1:2
May 2, 2012 Brasiliense
Ceilandia vs Legiao
2:0
Feb 15, 2012 Brasiliense
Legiao vs Ceilandia
0:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ceilandia 58 / 100
Legiao 19 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ceilandia Legiao

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ceilandia Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ceilandia scored in 84% of their last 31 games.

Legiao has conceded goals in 80% of their last 30 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.60 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Ceilandia remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Ceilandia VS Legiao
1.38 Goals Scored 1
1.63 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 0%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Ceilandia

(Home)
28 Jun
Luverdense
1 : 1
Ceilandia
20 Jun
Ceilandia
1 : 2
Luverdense
07 Jun
Mixto
1 : 1
Ceilandia
30 May
Ceilandia
1 : 1
Goiatuba EC
23 May
Uniao Rondonopolis
2 : 3
Ceilandia
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Legiao

(Away)
29 Aug
Canaa EC
1 : 1
Legiao
08 Mar
Real Brasilia
2 : 1
Legiao
23 Feb
Sobradinho
2 : 0
Legiao
16 Feb
Legiao
1 : 1
Ceilandense
13 Feb
Legiao
1 : 2
Ceilandia
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Sobradinho 1
Capital 1
Ceilandia 2
Legiao 0
Final
Sobradinho 1
Ceilandia 4