Sport Picks
Match Events
6'
6'
Pedro Bortoluzo
15'
15'
Marquinho
46'
46'
Borges D.
AI Match Summary
This match ends 1-2, with Luverdense advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
22%
28%
50%
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Luverdense
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
76%
/ High Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Luverdense come out ahead of Ceilandia on wins alone.
- Luverdense are the model's pick here, at 50%.
- Luverdense arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
- Historical meetings favor Luverdense, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Ceilandia Clean Sheet 18%
Luverdense Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Ceilandia | Luverdense |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 10 | 12 |
| Draws | 9 | 10 |
| Losses | 11 | 8 |
| Goals Scored | 1.13 | 1.25 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.38 | 1.25 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.13 | 1.25 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.38 | 1.25 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jun 28, 2026 Serie D
Luverdense vs Ceilandia
1:1
Jun 20, 2026 Serie D
Ceilandia vs Luverdense
1:2
Jul 5, 2025 Serie D
Ceilandia vs Luverdense
1:0
May 10, 2025 Serie D
Luverdense vs Ceilandia
2:2
Mar 19, 2017 Copa Verde
Luverdense vs Ceilandia
3:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Ceilandia Compare
Top Goalscorer Marquinho
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56
Luverdense Compare
Top Goalscorer Pedro Bortoluzo
1 Goals Assists Leader Borges D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Ceilandia 23 / 100
Luverdense 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Ceilandia Luverdense
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick LUV Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Ceilandia scored in 83% of their last 30 games.
Games between these two average 2.80 goals.
Recent resilience: Ceilandia stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.
Defensive concern: Luverdense conceded in 47% of 30 recent games.
Scoring Trends
Ceilandia VS Luverdense
1.13 Goals Scored 1.25
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Ceilandia
(Home) 28 Jun
Luverdense
1 : 1 Ceilandia
20 Jun
Ceilandia
1 : 2 Luverdense
07 Jun
Mixto
1 : 1 Ceilandia
30 May
Ceilandia
1 : 1 Goiatuba EC
23 May
Uniao Rondonopolis
2 : 3 Ceilandia
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20 Jun
Ceilandia
1 : 2 Luverdense
30 May
Ceilandia
1 : 1 Goiatuba EC
09 May
Ceilandia
0 : 1 Operario VG
25 Apr
Ceilandia
1 : 2 Capital
18 Apr
Ceilandia
1 : 0 Uniao Rondonopolis
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Luverdense
(Away) 18 Jul
Luverdense
0 : 0 ABC
12 Jul
Guapore
0 : 0 Luverdense
04 Jul
Luverdense
1 : 0 Guapore
28 Jun
Luverdense
1 : 1 Ceilandia
20 Jun
Ceilandia
1 : 2 Luverdense
Page 1 of 6
12 Jul
Guapore
0 : 0 Luverdense
20 Jun
Ceilandia
1 : 2 Luverdense
31 May
Brasiliense
1 : 1 Luverdense
17 May
Primavera AC
1 : 0 Luverdense
02 May
Gama
4 : 0 Luverdense
Page 1 of 3
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/32-finals
Independencia Futebol Clube1
Manauara3
Brasiliense0
Goiatuba EC1
Imperatriz2
Maracana1
Central SC1
Ferroviario3
Fluminense-PI0
America RN4
Sampaio Correa2
Trem3
Sao Raimundo RR2
Porto Velho3
Mixto1
Gama3
Monte Roraima3
Guapore4
Ceilandia2
Luverdense3
Parnahyba2
Aguia De Maraba3
AE Altos1
ABC2
Araguaina0
Nacional-AM (Manaus)1
Aparecidense1
Capital5
Tuna Luso2
Iguatu3
Maguary2
Piaui1
Portuguesa RJ4
Noroeste2
EC Sao Jose (PA)3
Santa Catarina2
Jacuipense1
Treze PB3
CRAC1
Tombense0
Serra Branca3
Juazeirense0
Rio Branco ES2
Uberlandia4
Sampaio Correa FE1
Portuguesa2
FC Cascavel3
Marcilio Dias4
Sao Luiz3
Blumenau2
Velo Clube2
Agua Santa1
Lagarto1
CSA3
Vitoria ES1
Betim FC2
America RJ1
Piracicaba3
Sao Joseense1
Cianorte2
ASA2
Sergipe1
Ivinhema4
Democrata GV2
1/16-finals
Manauara2
Goiatuba EC3
Imperatriz1
Ferroviario4
America RN6
Trem2
Porto Velho2
Gama3
Guapore0
Luverdense1
Aguia De Maraba2
ABC4
Nacional-AM (Manaus)2
Capital1
Iguatu5
Maguary3
Portuguesa RJ0
EC Sao Jose (PA)1
Treze PB3
CRAC2
Serra Branca2
Uberlandia3
Portuguesa3
Marcilio Dias1
Sao Luiz4
Velo Clube3
CSA4
Betim FC1
Piracicaba0
Cianorte4
ASA6
Ivinhema1
1/8-finals
Goiatuba EC3
Ferroviario0
America RN1
Gama0
Luverdense0
ABC0
Nacional-AM (Manaus)1
Iguatu1
EC Sao Jose (PA)2
Treze PB1
Uberlandia2
Portuguesa0
Sao Luiz0
CSA0
Cianorte0
ASA1
Quarter-finals
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Semi-finals
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Final
TBD-
TBD-