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Ceilandia vs Paranoa

Brazil Brazil

Brasiliense Estadio Maria de Lourdes Abadia (Abadiao), Ceilândia
Our Tip

Match Events

4' Event
Cabralzinho
15' Event
Patrikao
40' Event
da Silva R.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

The Brasiliense game between Ceilandia and Paranoa finished 4-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Ceilandia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Ceilandia
30%
Draws
23%
Paranoa
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Ceilandia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Paranoa come out ahead of Ceilandia on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Ceilandia's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Brasiliense form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Ceilandia have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 46%
Over 4.5 Goals 21%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Ceilandia Clean Sheet 20%
Paranoa Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ceilandia Paranoa
Matches Played 33 30
Wins 12 13
Draws 10 5
Losses 11 12
Goals Scored 1.27 1.3
Goals Conceded 1.12 1.57
Expected Goals (xG) 2.52 0.85
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 21, 2026 Brasiliense
Ceilandia vs Paranoa
4:1
Feb 8, 2025 Brasiliense
Paranoa vs Ceilandia
1:2
Feb 17, 2024 Brasiliense
Ceilandia vs Paranoa
1:1
Feb 8, 2023 Brasiliense
Ceilandia vs Paranoa
3:0
Feb 19, 2022 Brasiliense
Ceilandia vs Paranoa
5:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ceilandia Compare

Top Goalscorer Cabralzinho
1 Goals
Assists Leader Patrikao
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.94
Avg xA / game 1.26

Paranoa Compare

Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.47

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ceilandia 85 / 100
Paranoa 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ceilandia Paranoa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ceilandia Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ceilandia found the back of the net in 85% of recent matches (33 games).

H2H data points to 3.60 goals as a typical output.

Defensive concern: Paranoa conceded in 73% of 30 recent games.

Ceilandia went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Ceilandia VS Paranoa
1.38 Goals Scored 0.33
1.38 Goals Conceded 3.67
75% Over 1.5 67%
63% Over 2.5 67%
25% Over 3.5 67%

Recent Form & Match History

Ceilandia

(Home)
28 Jun
Luverdense
1 : 1
Ceilandia
20 Jun
Ceilandia
1 : 2
Luverdense
07 Jun
Mixto
1 : 1
Ceilandia
30 May
Ceilandia
1 : 1
Goiatuba EC
23 May
Uniao Rondonopolis
2 : 3
Ceilandia
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Paranoa

(Away)
28 Feb
Paranoa
0 : 6
Samambaia
21 Feb
Ceilandia
4 : 1
Paranoa
11 Feb
Paranoa
0 : 1
Brasiliense
07 Feb
Real Brasilia
4 : 5
Paranoa
31 Jan
Gama
4 : 1
Paranoa
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Gama 9 7 2 0 15:4 23
2 Samambaia 9 6 2 1 21:5 20
3 Sobradinho 9 5 2 2 11:8 17
4 Ceilandia 9 5 1 3 17:12 16
5 Capital 9 4 3 2 19:10 15
6 Brasiliense 9 4 3 2 13:7 15
7 Real Brasilia 9 3 1 5 11:13 10
8 Paranoa 9 2 0 7 8:24 6
9 Brasilia FC (DF) 9 1 0 8 4:19 3
10 ARUC 9 1 0 8 3:20 3
Promotion - Brasiliense (Play Offs)
Relegation - Brasiliense 2 (Main)