Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Ceilandia vs Real Brasilia

Brazil Brazil

Brasiliense 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

57' Event
Wisman

AI Match Summary

Ceilandia in this Brasiliense 2025 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Ceilandia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Ceilandia
39%
Draws
31%
Real Brasilia
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Ceilandia have won more games recently than Real Brasilia.
  • 39% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Ceilandia here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
Ceilandia Clean Sheet 68%
Real Brasilia Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ceilandia Real Brasilia
Matches Played 38 36
Wins 15 8
Draws 11 8
Losses 12 20
Goals Scored 1.38 3
Goals Conceded 1.38 0.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 3.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 0.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 31, 2026 Brasiliense
Ceilandia vs Real Brasilia
2:0
Jan 18, 2025 Brasiliense
Ceilandia vs Real Brasilia
1:0
Feb 28, 2024 Copa Verde
Ceilandia vs Real Brasilia
1:0
Jan 13, 2024 Brasiliense
Real Brasilia vs Ceilandia
0:1
Feb 3, 2023 Brasiliense
Real Brasilia vs Ceilandia
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ceilandia Compare

Top Goalscorer Wisman
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Real Brasilia Compare

Avg xG / game 2.73
Avg xA / game 1.67

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ceilandia 41 / 100
Real Brasilia 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ceilandia Real Brasilia

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CEI Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ceilandia scored in 84% of their last 38 games.

Real Brasilia let in goals in 83% of their last 36 matches.

Recent resilience: Ceilandia stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Away concern: Real Brasilia has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Ceilandia VS Real Brasilia
1.38 Goals Scored 3
1.38 Goals Conceded 0.5
75% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 50%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Brasiliense971115:422
2Capital962117:520
3Ceilandia961212:819
4Gama95227:417
5Paranoa950413:1115
6Sobradinho93339:612
7Samambaia93249:811
8Real Brasilia91266:155
9Ceilandense91268:185
10Legiao90183:201