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Ceilandia vs Sobradinho

Brazil Brazil

Brasiliense 2025
Ceilandia Logo

Ceilandia

1 - 0
FT
Sobradinho Logo

Sobradinho

Our Tip

Match Events

24' Event
Cordeiro Nunes K. L.
60'
Luiz A.
60'
Luiz A.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Brasiliense 2025 game between Ceilandia and Sobradinho finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Ceilandia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Ceilandia
35%
Draws
35%
Sobradinho
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Sobradinho come out ahead of Ceilandia on wins alone.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%
Ceilandia Clean Sheet 68%
Sobradinho Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ceilandia Sobradinho
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 11 15
Draws 9 9
Losses 11 6
Goals Scored 1.26 1.87
Goals Conceded 1.13 0.7
Expected Goals (xG) 0.63 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 10, 2026 Brasiliense
Ceilandia vs Sobradinho
1:1
Jan 29, 2025 Brasiliense
Ceilandia vs Sobradinho
1:0
Mar 5, 2020 Brasiliense
Sobradinho vs Ceilandia
1:3
Mar 16, 2019 Brasiliense
Sobradinho vs Ceilandia
0:0
Mar 28, 2018 Brasiliense
Ceilandia vs Sobradinho
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ceilandia Compare

Top Goalscorer Cordeiro Nunes K. L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.32

Sobradinho Compare

Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ceilandia 42 / 100
Sobradinho 40 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ceilandia Sobradinho

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Ceilandia scored in 84% of their last 31 outings.

Sobradinho's defensive record shows goals conceded in 60% of 30 matches.

Ceilandia has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Historical meetings average 1.40 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Ceilandia VS Sobradinho
1 Goals Scored 0.5
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.25
63% Over 1.5 0%
50% Over 2.5 0%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Ceilandia

(Home)
28 Jun
Luverdense
1 : 1
Ceilandia
20 Jun
Ceilandia
1 : 2
Luverdense
07 Jun
Mixto
1 : 1
Ceilandia
30 May
Ceilandia
1 : 1
Goiatuba EC
23 May
Uniao Rondonopolis
2 : 3
Ceilandia
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Sobradinho

(Away)
21 Mar
Gama
1 : 0
Sobradinho
15 Mar
Samambaia
0 : 1
Sobradinho
08 Mar
Sobradinho
0 : 0
Samambaia
28 Feb
Sobradinho
1 : 0
Brasilia FC (DF)
22 Feb
Samambaia
3 : 0
Sobradinho
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Brasiliense 9 7 1 1 15:4 22
2 Capital 9 6 2 1 17:5 20
3 Ceilandia 9 6 1 2 12:8 19
4 Gama 9 5 2 2 7:4 17
5 Paranoa 9 5 0 4 13:11 15
6 Sobradinho 9 3 3 3 9:6 12
7 Samambaia 9 3 2 4 9:8 11
8 Real Brasilia 9 1 2 6 6:15 5
9 Ceilandense 9 1 2 6 8:18 5
10 Legiao 9 0 1 8 3:20 1
Promotion - Brasiliense 2025 (Play Offs)