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Celaya vs Tigres de Alica - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Mexico Mexico

Primera Premier
Sun, Nov 8, 2026
VS
01:00 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Celaya host Tigres de Alica in the Primera Premier. Little to choose between these two on current form. Tigres de Alica have shipped 1.03 goals a game lately, while Celaya have conceded 0.97 and scored 1.83. No recent head-to-head history to lean on here — form is the better guide. Model xG sits at 1.31 vs 1.38, favoring Tigres de Alica. The prediction model leans Draw; both defenses could hold firm.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Celaya
20%
Draws
40%
Tigres de Alica
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Celaya haven't matched Tigres de Alica's recent run of results.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Celaya Clean Sheet 17%
Tigres de Alica Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Celaya Tigres de Alica
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 17 19
Draws 6 4
Losses 6 6
Goals Scored 1.83 1.9
Goals Conceded 0.97 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Celaya 31 / 100
Tigres de Alica 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Celaya Tigres de Alica

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Celaya found the back of the net in 83% of recent matches (29 games).

Tigres de Alica has conceded goals in 72% of their last 29 outings.

Solid form: Celaya remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Away concern: Tigres de Alica has suffered 2 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Celaya VS Tigres de Alica
1.75 Goals Scored 1.63
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.88
88% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Celaya

(Home)
10 Oct
Racing de Veracruz
2 : 1
Celaya
06 Oct
Celaya
0 : 1
Jaguares De Chiapas
26 Sept
Deportiva Venados
2 : 3
Celaya
20 Sept
Celaya
2 : 1
Montaneses
12 Sept
Chapulineros
1 : 1
Celaya
Page 1 of 6

Tigres de Alica

(Away)
24 Oct
Deportiva Venados
3 : 1
Tigres de Alica
17 Oct
Tigres de Alica
4 : 0
Reboceros de La Piedad
10 Oct
Cordobes FC
1 : 0
Tigres de Alica
04 Oct
Tigres de Alica
1 : 0
Purepechas
27 Sept
Tigres de Alica
1 : 1
Tritones Vallarta
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Irapuato 7 7 0 0 16:4 22
2 Tigres de Alica 8 4 2 2 13:7 14
3 Reboceros de La Piedad 7 5 0 2 12:11 14
4 Zacatepec 8 3 2 3 8:9 12
5 Los Cabos United 8 3 1 4 7:9 10
6 Lobos ULMX 7 2 1 4 7:11 7
7 Cordobes FC 7 2 1 4 5:9 7
8 Purepechas 6 1 1 4 3:7 4
9 Tritones Vallarta 7 0 2 5 4:9 2
Promotion - Primera Premier (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Racing de Veracruz 8 5 3 0 19:7 20
2 Pioneros 8 5 2 1 18:7 18
3 Celaya 7 4 1 2 11:7 13
4 Jaguares De Chiapas 7 3 2 2 6:5 12
5 Chapulineros 8 3 2 3 11:15 11
6 Deportiva Venados 7 2 2 3 14:14 9
7 Montaneses 8 3 1 4 12:15 9
8 Inter Playa Del Carmen 7 1 1 5 6:13 4
9 Tapachula 7 1 0 6 7:20 3
Promotion - Primera Premier (Play Offs)