Sport Picks
Celta Vigo vs Freiburg
Europe
Europa League 2025/2026 Estadio de Balaídos, Vigo 
Match Events
33'
33'
Matanovic I.
Assist: Makengo J.
39'
39'
Suzuki Y.
Assist: Beste J.
45'
45'
Matanovic I.
AI Match Summary
Freiburg in this Europa League 2025/2026 tie, finishing 1-3. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
21%
35%
44%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Freiburg
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
44%
/ Low Confidence
- Freiburg have won more games recently than Celta Vigo.
- 44% — that's where the model lands on Freiburg taking it.
- Freiburg arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
- Historical meetings favor Freiburg, who have won 1 of the last 2 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.6%
Celta Vigo Clean Sheet 10%
Freiburg Clean Sheet 20%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Celta Vigo | Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 29 |
| Wins | 9 | 18 |
| Draws | 10 | 2 |
| Losses | 11 | 9 |
| Goals Scored | 1.37 | 2.21 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.37 | 1.24 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.50 | 2.00 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 16, 2026 Europa League
Celta Vigo vs Freiburg
1:3
Apr 9, 2026 Europa League
Freiburg vs Celta Vigo
3:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Celta Vigo Compare
Top Goalscorer Swedberg W.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.38
Avg xA / game 0.25
Freiburg Compare
Top Goalscorer Suzuki Y.
2 Goals Assists Leader Matanovic I.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Celta Vigo 10 / 100
Freiburg 85 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Celta Vigo Freiburg
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Freiburg Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
These sides typically produce 3.50 goals when they meet.
Celta Vigo scored in 77% of their last 30 games.
Defensive concern: Freiburg conceded in 76% of 29 recent games.
Solid form: Celta Vigo remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Celta Vigo VS Freiburg
0.5 Goals Scored 3
1 Goals Conceded 0.5
63% Over 1.5 88%
13% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Celta Vigo
(Home) 19 Sept
Celta Vigo
5 : 0 Racing Santander
16 Sept
Omonia
1 : 0 Celta Vigo
13 Sept
Celta Vigo
1 : 1 Malaga
07 Sept
Getafe
1 : 1 Celta Vigo
03 Sept
Real Sociedad
0 : 0 Celta Vigo
Page 1 of 6
19 Sept
Celta Vigo
5 : 0 Racing Santander
13 Sept
Celta Vigo
1 : 1 Malaga
30 Aug
Celta Vigo
0 : 2 Ath Bilbao
27 Aug
Celta Vigo
1 : 2 Osasuna
29 Jul
Celta Vigo
2 : 2 Academico Viseu
Page 1 of 3
Freiburg
(Away) 19 Sept
Eintracht Frankfurt
2 : 2 Freiburg
12 Sept
Freiburg
5 : 0 B. Monchengladbach
05 Sept
Paderborn
0 : 1 Freiburg
30 Aug
Freiburg
4 : 1 Werder Bremen
27 Aug
Freiburg
4 : 1 Motherwell
Page 1 of 6
19 Sept
Eintracht Frankfurt
2 : 2 Freiburg
05 Sept
Paderborn
0 : 1 Freiburg
23 Aug
Dusseldorf
1 : 5 Freiburg
20 Aug
Motherwell
1 : 3 Freiburg
10 May
Hamburger
3 : 2 Freiburg
Page 1 of 3
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/16-finals
Ludogorets 2
Ferencvaros 3
Braga -
TBD -
Panathinaikos 4
Plzen 3
Betis -
TBD -
Din. Zagreb 4
Genk 6
Freiburg -
TBD -
PAOK 1
Celta Vigo 3
Lyon -
TBD -
Celtic 2
VfB Stuttgart 4
FC Porto -
TBD -
Fenerbahce 2
Nottingham 4
Midtjylland -
TBD -
Brann 0
Bologna 2
AS Roma -
TBD -
Lille 2
Crvena zvezda 1
Aston Villa -
TBD -
1/8-finals
Ferencvaros 2
Braga 4
Panathinaikos 1
Betis 4
Genk 2
Freiburg 5
Celta Vigo 3
Lyon 1
VfB Stuttgart 1
FC Porto 4
Nottingham 3
Midtjylland 2
Bologna 5
AS Roma 4
Lille 0
Aston Villa 3
Quarter-finals
Braga 5
Betis 3
Freiburg 6
Celta Vigo 1
FC Porto 1
Nottingham 2
Bologna 1
Aston Villa 7
Semi-finals
Braga 3
Freiburg 4
Nottingham 1
Aston Villa 4
Final
Freiburg 0
Aston Villa 3
