Sport Picks
Match Events
6'
6'
Rodriguez A.
26'
26'
Santos S.
67'
67'
Sobrido
AI Match Summary
The Tercera RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 game between Celtiga and Arosa SC finished 3-4, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Arosa SC.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
0%
15%
85%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Arosa SC
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
85%
/ Very High Confidence
- Arosa SC carry the better recent record into this one.
- Model gives Arosa SC a 85% chance of winning this.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- Arosa SC have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.6%
Celtiga Clean Sheet 17%
Arosa SC Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Celtiga | Arosa SC |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 10 | 18 |
| Draws | 6 | 8 |
| Losses | 13 | 3 |
| Goals Scored | 1.31 | 1.69 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.41 | 0.97 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.75 | 1.38 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
May 10, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Arosa SC vs Celtiga
3:2
Jan 18, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Celtiga vs Arosa SC
3:4
Feb 3, 2019 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Arosa SC vs Celtiga
1:2
Sep 8, 2018 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Celtiga vs Arosa SC
0:2
Apr 28, 2018 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Arosa SC vs Celtiga
2:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Celtiga Compare
Top Goalscorer Rodriguez A.
1 Goals Assists Leader Sobrido
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38
Arosa SC Compare
Top Goalscorer Santos S.
1 Goals Assists Leader Lopez I.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Celtiga 10 / 100
Arosa SC 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Celtiga Arosa SC
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Arosa SC Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
These sides typically produce 4.00 goals when they meet.
Celtiga found the back of the net in 72% of recent matches (29 games).
Arosa SC has conceded goals in 62% of their last 29 outings.
Scoring Trends
Celtiga VS Arosa SC
1 Goals Scored 1
1.75 Goals Conceded 0.5
75% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 0%
25% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
Celtiga
(Home) 10 May
Arosa SC
3 : 2 Celtiga
01 May
Celtiga
2 : 3 Atletico Arteixo
25 Apr
Noia
3 : 0 Celtiga
19 Apr
Celtiga
0 : 1 Racing Club Villalbes
12 Apr
Barbadas-Bentraces
3 : 2 Celtiga
Page 1 of 6
01 May
Celtiga
2 : 3 Atletico Arteixo
19 Apr
Celtiga
0 : 1 Racing Club Villalbes
05 Apr
Celtiga
0 : 1 Alondras
22 Mar
Celtiga
1 : 1 Gran Pena
08 Mar
Celtiga
2 : 0 Cambados
Page 1 of 3
Arosa SC
(Away) 01 Aug
Arosa SC
3 : 1 Pontevedra
10 May
Arosa SC
3 : 2 Celtiga
02 May
Cambados
0 : 2 Arosa SC
26 Apr
Arosa SC
1 : 0 CD Boiro
19 Apr
Barco
0 : 1 Arosa SC
Page 1 of 6
02 May
Cambados
0 : 2 Arosa SC
19 Apr
Barco
0 : 1 Arosa SC
05 Apr
Estradense
1 : 1 Arosa SC
22 Mar
Montaneros
0 : 1 Arosa SC
08 Mar
Noia
0 : 1 Arosa SC
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arosa SC | 34 | 20 | 10 | 4 | 58:35 | 70 |
| 2 | Compostela | 34 | 19 | 11 | 4 | 55:28 | 68 |
| 3 | Atletico Arteixo | 34 | 16 | 10 | 8 | 54:44 | 58 |
| 4 | Estradense | 34 | 14 | 11 | 9 | 46:33 | 53 |
| 5 | Racing Club Villalbes | 34 | 13 | 13 | 8 | 36:29 | 52 |
| 6 | Gran Pena | 34 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 57:42 | 51 |
| 7 | Somozas | 34 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 37:32 | 51 |
| 8 | CD Boiro | 34 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 45:29 | 51 |
| 9 | Lugo B | 34 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 41:35 | 48 |
| 10 | Montaneros | 34 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 48:42 | 48 |
| 11 | Barco | 34 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 35:41 | 46 |
| 12 | Alondras | 34 | 12 | 9 | 13 | 45:48 | 45 |
| 13 | Celtiga | 34 | 11 | 7 | 16 | 47:48 | 40 |
| 14 | Viveiro | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 27:41 | 38 |
| 15 | Silva SD | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 36:48 | 36 |
| 16 | Cambados | 34 | 4 | 14 | 16 | 24:43 | 26 |
| 17 | Noia | 34 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 28:57 | 25 |
| 18 | Barbadas-Bentraces | 34 | 4 | 7 | 23 | 25:69 | 19 |
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
