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Celtiga vs Barco

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Tercera RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

11' Event
Martin O.
20' Event
Rodriguez A.
28' Event
Freiria M.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 game between Celtiga and Barco finished 3-5, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Barco.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

0%
Celtiga
15%
Draws
85%
Barco
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Barco

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

0% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Barco come out ahead of Celtiga on wins alone.
  • Celtiga are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%
Celtiga Clean Sheet 68%
Barco Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Celtiga Barco
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 10 12
Draws 6 7
Losses 14 12
Goals Scored 1.3 1.1
Goals Conceded 1.43 1.26
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 22, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Celtiga vs Barco
3:5
Oct 5, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Barco vs Celtiga
2:1
Mar 2, 2019 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Barco vs Celtiga
1:2
Oct 7, 2018 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Celtiga vs Barco
0:2
Apr 15, 2018 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Celtiga vs Barco
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Celtiga Compare

Top Goalscorer Rodriguez A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Del Rio N.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Barco Compare

Top Goalscorer Freiria M.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Castro B.
2 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Celtiga 50 / 100
Barco 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Celtiga Barco

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Celtiga Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 4.20 goals when they meet.

Celtiga's goal record stands at 73% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Barco let in goals in 65% of their last 31 matches.

Away concern: Barco has suffered 4 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Celtiga VS Barco
1 Goals Scored 1.13
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 38%
50% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Celtiga

(Home)
10 May
Arosa SC
3 : 2
Celtiga
01 May
Celtiga
2 : 3
Atletico Arteixo
25 Apr
Noia
3 : 0
Celtiga
19 Apr
Celtiga
0 : 1
Racing Club Villalbes
12 Apr
Barbadas-Bentraces
3 : 2
Celtiga
Page 1 of 6

Barco

(Away)
19 Aug
UD Ourense
2 : 0
Barco
10 May
Estradense
3 : 1
Barco
03 May
Barco
1 : 2
Somozas
26 Apr
Montaneros
0 : 0
Barco
19 Apr
Barco
0 : 1
Arosa SC
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Arosa SC 34 20 10 4 58:35 70
2 Compostela 34 19 11 4 55:28 68
3 Atletico Arteixo 34 16 10 8 54:44 58
4 Estradense 34 14 11 9 46:33 53
5 Racing Club Villalbes 34 13 13 8 36:29 52
6 Gran Pena 34 13 12 9 57:42 51
7 Somozas 34 13 12 9 37:32 51
8 CD Boiro 34 13 12 9 45:29 51
9 Lugo B 34 12 12 10 41:35 48
10 Montaneros 34 12 12 10 48:42 48
11 Barco 34 13 7 14 35:41 46
12 Alondras 34 12 9 13 45:48 45
13 Celtiga 34 11 7 16 47:48 40
14 Viveiro 34 9 11 14 27:41 38
15 Silva SD 34 9 9 16 36:48 36
16 Cambados 34 4 14 16 24:43 26
17 Noia 34 6 7 21 28:57 25
18 Barbadas-Bentraces 34 4 7 23 25:69 19
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 (Play Offs)