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Cerrito vs Plaza Colonia

Uruguay Uruguay

Segunda Division Estadio Charrúa
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Cerrito play Plaza Colonia in the Segunda Division. It looks like a close match. Recently, Cerrito averaged 1.17 goals scored and 1.34 conceded. Plaza Colonia averaged 1 goals scored and 1.17 conceded. In past meetings, Cerrito won 3, Plaza Colonia won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on Jun 28, 2026 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.31 for Cerrito and 1.31 for Plaza Colonia. This points to a Cerrito double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

44%
Cerrito
18%
Draws
38%
Plaza Colonia
Draw rate projection: 18% Favored: Cerrito

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Cerrito picked up more points recently compared to Plaza Colonia.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.31 vs 1.31 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 62%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 23%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 44%
Cerrito Clean Sheet 18%
Plaza Colonia Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 56%
Second Half Goal 59%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Cerrito Plaza Colonia
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 9 11
Draws 10 5
Losses 10 13
Goals Scored 1.17 1
Goals Conceded 1.34 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 28, 2026 Segunda Division
Cerrito vs Plaza Colonia
1:0
Nov 10, 2024 Segunda Division
Plaza Colonia vs Cerrito
1:0
Jul 20, 2024 Segunda Division
Cerrito vs Plaza Colonia
0:1
Mar 30, 2024 Segunda Division
Plaza Colonia vs Cerrito
1:2
Oct 23, 2022 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Plaza Colonia vs Cerrito
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Cerrito Compare

Top Goalscorer Isasmendi J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Plaza Colonia Compare

Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Cerrito 43 / 100
Plaza Colonia 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Cerrito Plaza Colonia

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Cerrito or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +22.3%
2.78
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +18.9%
3.13
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Cerrito attacking → ← attacking Plaza Colonia

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Cerrito scored in 69% of their last 29 games.

Plaza Colonia let in goals in 69% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Cerrito went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Plaza Colonia lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

37 Points in last 5 38
1.75 Goals expected (xG) 1.13
1.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.88

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Atenas961217:819
2Cerrito943214:1315
3River Plate Montevideo942314:1414
4Tacuarembo94238:814
5Fenix934214:1113
6Miramar934214:1113
7Plaza Colonia94148:813
8Colon93338:912
9Huracan FC93338:1012
10Club Oriental De Futbol925214:1211
11Rentistas93248:1211
12La Luz92436:810
13Paysandu FC921611:157
14Uruguay Montevideo FC92169:147