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Cerrito vs Plaza Colonia

Uruguay Uruguay

Segunda Division Estadio Charrúa, Montevideo
Our Tip

Match Events

65' Event
Isasmendi J.

AI Match Summary

Cerrito in this Segunda Division matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Cerrito.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Cerrito
35%
Draws
25%
Plaza Colonia
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Cerrito

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Plaza Colonia lately — more wins on the board than Cerrito.
  • 40% — that's where the model lands on Cerrito taking it.
  • Regular Segunda Division form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
Cerrito Clean Sheet 68%
Plaza Colonia Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Cerrito Plaza Colonia
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 10 13
Draws 10 7
Losses 8 8
Goals Scored 1.29 1.32
Goals Conceded 1.18 0.93
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 4, 2026 Segunda Division
Plaza Colonia vs Cerrito
1:3
Jun 28, 2026 Segunda Division
Cerrito vs Plaza Colonia
1:0
Nov 10, 2024 Segunda Division
Plaza Colonia vs Cerrito
1:0
Jul 20, 2024 Segunda Division
Cerrito vs Plaza Colonia
0:1
Mar 30, 2024 Segunda Division
Plaza Colonia vs Cerrito
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Cerrito Compare

Top Goalscorer Isasmendi J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Plaza Colonia Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Cerrito 68 / 100
Plaza Colonia 19 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Cerrito Plaza Colonia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Cerrito Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Cerrito scored in 75% of their last 28 games.

Plaza Colonia has conceded goals in 64% of their last 28 outings.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Cerrito remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Cerrito VS Plaza Colonia
1.13 Goals Scored 0.88
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.13
88% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Cerrito

(Home)
04 Oct
Plaza Colonia
1 : 3
Cerrito
27 Sept
Cerrito
1 : 2
La Luz
23 Sept
Wanderers
1 : 3
Cerrito
20 Sept
Cerrito
1 : 1
River Plate Montevideo
13 Sept
Atenas
0 : 0
Cerrito
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Plaza Colonia

(Away)
04 Oct
Plaza Colonia
1 : 3
Cerrito
30 Sept
Defensor Sp.
0 : 1
Plaza Colonia
27 Sept
Atenas
0 : 0
Plaza Colonia
19 Sept
Plaza Colonia
1 : 1
Paysandu FC
16 Sept
Rentistas
2 : 1
Plaza Colonia
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Atenas 21 12 4 5 30:18 40
2 Rentistas 21 9 6 6 26:23 33
3 Club Oriental De Futbol 21 8 8 5 29:22 32
4 Plaza Colonia 21 9 5 7 26:21 32
5 River Plate Montevideo 21 8 6 7 31:26 30
6 Colon 21 8 6 7 20:23 30
7 Fenix 21 7 8 6 27:24 29
8 Cerrito 21 7 8 6 27:24 29
9 La Luz 21 7 6 8 19:24 27
10 Huracan FC 21 7 5 9 22:28 26
11 Paysandu FC 21 7 4 10 26:28 25
12 Miramar 21 6 7 8 23:26 25
13 Tacuarembo 21 6 6 9 16:23 24
14 Uruguay Montevideo FC 21 4 5 12 19:31 17
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya 2027 (Apertura)