Sport Picks
Cerro Largo vs Club Nacional - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Uruguay
Liga AUF Uruguaya Estadio Arquitecto Antonio Eleuterio Ubilla, Melo 
Match Events
19'
19'
Rodriguez N.
31'
31'
Correa T.
43'
43'
Silvera M.
AI Match Summary
Club Nacional in this Liga AUF Uruguaya matchup, with the score ending 0-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Club Nacional.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
19%
20%
61%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Club Nacional
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
61%
/ High Confidence
- Club Nacional have won more games recently than Cerro Largo.
- Club Nacional are the model's pick here, at 70%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- These two have met 5 times recently and Club Nacional have taken 5 of them.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Cerro Largo Clean Sheet 16%
Club Nacional Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Cerro Largo | Club Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 30 |
| Wins | 7 | 15 |
| Draws | 10 | 5 |
| Losses | 11 | 10 |
| Goals Scored | 0.96 | 1.4 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.14 | 1.3 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.76 | 1.44 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 26, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Cerro Largo vs Club Nacional
0:2
Mar 24, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Club Nacional vs Cerro Largo
3:0
Jan 17, 2026 Copa de la Liga AUF
Club Nacional vs Cerro Largo
2:1
Oct 4, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Club Nacional vs Cerro Largo
2:1
Apr 6, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Cerro Largo vs Club Nacional
0:4
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Cerro Largo Compare
Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38
Club Nacional Compare
Top Goalscorer Correa T.
1 Goals Assists Leader Gomez M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Cerro Largo 15 / 100
Club Nacional 77 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Cerro Largo Club Nacional
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Club Nacional Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Cerro Largo found the back of the net in 68% of recent matches (28 games).
Club Nacional let in goals in 60% of their last 30 matches.
These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.
Cerro Largo went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Cerro Largo VS Club Nacional
0.63 Goals Scored 1.63
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.88
75% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Cerro Largo
(Home) 04 Oct
Danubio
2 : 1 Cerro Largo
30 Sept
Cerro Largo
1 : 0 Rentistas
26 Sept
Cerro Largo
0 : 2 Club Nacional
19 Sept
Maldonado
2 : 0 Cerro Largo
12 Sept
Cerro Largo
0 : 0 Central Esp.
Page 1 of 6
30 Sept
Cerro Largo
1 : 0 Rentistas
26 Sept
Cerro Largo
0 : 2 Club Nacional
12 Sept
Cerro Largo
0 : 0 Central Esp.
09 Sept
Cerro Largo
1 : 1 Defensor Sp.
30 Aug
Cerro Largo
1 : 1 Liverpool M.
Page 1 of 3
Club Nacional
(Away) 05 Oct
Club Nacional
2 : 0 Montevideo City
26 Sept
Cerro Largo
0 : 2 Club Nacional
20 Sept
Club Nacional
3 : 2 Defensor Sp.
16 Sept
Progreso
0 : 1 Club Nacional
12 Sept
Wanderers
1 : 1 Club Nacional
Page 1 of 6
26 Sept
Cerro Largo
0 : 2 Club Nacional
16 Sept
Progreso
0 : 1 Club Nacional
12 Sept
Wanderers
1 : 1 Club Nacional
03 Sept
River Plate Montevideo
2 : 3 Club Nacional
30 Aug
Penarol
0 : 1 Club Nacional
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League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montevideo City | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 20:10 | 22 |
| 2 | Liverpool M. | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 18:8 | 21 |
| 3 | Penarol | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 16:7 | 20 |
| 4 | Club Nacional | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 14:9 | 20 |
| 5 | Maldonado | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 14:6 | 18 |
| 6 | Juventud | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 12:6 | 17 |
| 7 | CA Cerro | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 12:13 | 17 |
| 8 | Wanderers | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 13:14 | 15 |
| 9 | Progreso | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 10:13 | 13 |
| 10 | Boston River | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 13:13 | 12 |
| 11 | Racing Montevideo | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 9:10 | 12 |
| 12 | Defensor Sp. | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 11:19 | 8 |
| 13 | Danubio | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 4:11 | 7 |
| 14 | Albion | 10 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 10:18 | 6 |
| 15 | Cerro Largo | 10 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 6:13 | 5 |
| 16 | Central Esp. | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 5:17 | 5 |
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Play Offs)
