Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Cerro Largo vs Danubio

Uruguay Uruguay

Liga AUF Uruguaya Estadio Arquitecto Antonio Eleuterio Ubilla, Melo
Our Tip

Match Events

28'
Marcel S.
33'
Sub
Costantino I. In: Cabrera E.
Out: Costantino I.
35'
Cavanagh T.

AI Match Summary

Cerro Largo in this Liga AUF Uruguaya matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Cerro Largo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Cerro Largo
6%
Draws
4%
Danubio
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Cerro Largo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Cerro Largo lately — more wins on the board than Danubio.
  • Model gives Cerro Largo a 90% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Liga AUF Uruguaya form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.400000000000002%
Cerro Largo Clean Sheet 68%
Danubio Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Cerro Largo Danubio
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 11 7
Draws 6 11
Losses 12 11
Goals Scored 1.13 0.63
Goals Conceded 0.75 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 30, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Cerro Largo vs Danubio
2:0
Aug 18, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Cerro Largo vs Danubio
1:0
Mar 6, 2025 Copa Sudamericana
Cerro Largo vs Danubio
3:2
Feb 15, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Danubio vs Cerro Largo
0:0
Oct 20, 2024 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Cerro Largo vs Danubio
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Cerro Largo Compare

Top Goalscorer Marcel S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Correa T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Danubio Compare

Avg xG / game 0.57
Avg xA / game 0.35

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Cerro Largo 95 / 100
Danubio 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Cerro Largo Danubio

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CER Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Recent resilience: Cerro Largo stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Cerro Largo found the back of the net in 72% of recent matches (29 games).

Danubio let in goals in 69% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 1.60 goals.

Scoring Trends

Cerro Largo VS Danubio
1.13 Goals Scored 0.63
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.38
50% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Cerro Largo

(Home)
25 Jul
Central Esp.
0 : 1
Cerro Largo
13 Jul
Cerro Largo
1 : 1
Defensor Sp.
08 Jun
Liverpool M.
0 : 0
Cerro Largo
29 May
Cerro Largo
2 : 0
CA Cerro
23 May
Cerro Largo
3 : 0
Boston River
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Danubio

(Away)
24 Jul
Montevideo City
1 : 0
Danubio
11 Jul
Danubio
0 : 0
Club Nacional
05 Jul
Danubio
1 : 1
Juventud
05 Jun
Wanderers
0 : 0
Danubio
30 May
Danubio
1 : 2
Progreso
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Racing Montevideo1594223:1431
2Maldonado1592424:1629
3Albion1584326:1628
4Penarol1583423:1627
5Central Esp.1573523:2224
6Montevideo City1565422:1623
7Club Nacional1571726:2122
8Defensor Sp.1556413:1121
9Liverpool M.1555520:1820
10Wanderers1562716:2120
11Danubio1546517:2118
12Cerro Largo1552816:1917
13Boston River1552814:2017
14Juventud1543817:2215
15Progreso1524912:2310
16CA Cerro152498:2410
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Play Offs)