Sport Picks
Cerro Largo vs Defensor Sp.
Uruguay
Liga AUF Uruguaya Estadio Arquitecto Antonio Eleuterio Ubilla, Melo 
Match Events
13'
13'
Rabunal M.
18'
18'
Daguerre D.
28'
28'
Amaro M.
AI Match Summary
The Liga AUF Uruguaya game between Cerro Largo and Defensor Sp. finished 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
43%
35%
22%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Cerro Largo
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
43%
/ Low Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Cerro Largo come out ahead of Defensor Sp. on wins alone.
- Cerro Largo are the model's pick here, at 70%.
- Regular Liga AUF Uruguaya form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Cerro Largo Clean Sheet 68%
Defensor Sp. Clean Sheet 12%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Cerro Largo | Defensor Sp. |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 9 | 6 |
| Draws | 8 | 11 |
| Losses | 12 | 12 |
| Goals Scored | 1.07 | 0.72 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.14 | 1.1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.19 | 0.94 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 22, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Cerro Largo vs Defensor Sp.
1:1
Jul 13, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Cerro Largo vs Defensor Sp.
1:1
Feb 21, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Defensor Sp. vs Cerro Largo
1:0
Sep 13, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Cerro Largo vs Defensor Sp.
1:0
May 24, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Defensor Sp. vs Cerro Largo
3:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Cerro Largo Compare
Top Goalscorer Daguerre D.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59
Defensor Sp. Compare
Top Goalscorer Amaro M.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Cerro Largo 77 / 100
Defensor Sp. 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Cerro Largo Defensor Sp.
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Cerro Largo Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Cerro Largo scored in 69% of their last 29 games.
Defensive concern: Defensor Sp. conceded in 76% of 29 recent games.
Historical meetings average 2.20 goals per match.
Solid form: Cerro Largo remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Cerro Largo VS Defensor Sp.
0.75 Goals Scored 0.75
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.63
75% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Cerro Largo
(Home) 30 Aug
Cerro Largo
1 : 1 Liverpool M.
26 Aug
Plaza Colonia
2 : 1 Cerro Largo
22 Aug
Cerro Largo
1 : 1 Defensor Sp.
15 Aug
Wanderers
1 : 1 Cerro Largo
07 Aug
Cerro Largo
1 : 1 Juventud
Page 1 of 6
30 Aug
Cerro Largo
1 : 1 Liverpool M.
22 Aug
Cerro Largo
1 : 1 Defensor Sp.
07 Aug
Cerro Largo
1 : 1 Juventud
13 Jul
Cerro Largo
1 : 1 Defensor Sp.
29 May
Cerro Largo
2 : 0 CA Cerro
Page 1 of 3
Defensor Sp.
(Away) 29 Aug
Defensor Sp.
1 : 3 Montevideo City
25 Aug
Defensor Sp.
0 : 0 Rentistas
22 Aug
Cerro Largo
1 : 1 Defensor Sp.
16 Aug
Defensor Sp.
0 : 4 Liverpool M.
09 Aug
Defensor Sp.
0 : 1 Wanderers
Page 1 of 6
22 Aug
Cerro Largo
1 : 1 Defensor Sp.
13 Jul
Cerro Largo
1 : 1 Defensor Sp.
04 Jul
Cruzeiro
2 : 0 Defensor Sp.
30 May
Racing Montevideo
0 : 0 Defensor Sp.
17 May
Central Esp.
2 : 1 Defensor Sp.
Page 1 of 3
League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 12:3 | 16 |
| 2 | Cerro Largo | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7:5 | 11 |
| 3 | Racing Montevideo | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 4:3 | 10 |
| 4 | Liverpool M. | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 5:5 | 9 |
| 5 | Central Esp. | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4:4 | 9 |
| 6 | CA Cerro | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 6:10 | 9 |
| 7 | Defensor Sp. | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6:9 | 6 |
| 8 | Boston River | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5:10 | 5 |
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Torneo Intermedio - Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wanderers | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 12:4 | 15 |
| 2 | Club Nacional | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8:8 | 13 |
| 3 | Maldonado | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12:6 | 12 |
| 4 | Montevideo City | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 11:11 | 12 |
| 5 | Juventud | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8:11 | 8 |
| 6 | Albion | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6:8 | 6 |
| 7 | Progreso | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6:11 | 6 |
| 8 | Danubio | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 5:9 | 4 |
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Torneo Intermedio - Play Offs)
