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Cerro Largo vs Racing Montevideo Prediction & H2H Stats

Uruguay Uruguay

Liga AUF Uruguaya Estadio Arquitecto Antonio Eleuterio Ubilla, Melo
Our Tip

Match Events

42'
Assis S.
42' Event
Cotugno G.
45'
Habib T.

AI Match Summary

The Liga AUF Uruguaya game between Cerro Largo and Racing Montevideo finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Racing Montevideo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Cerro Largo
30%
Draws
31%
Racing Montevideo
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Cerro Largo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Racing Montevideo carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 42% — that's where the model lands on Cerro Largo taking it.
  • Regular Liga AUF Uruguaya form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.8%
Cerro Largo Clean Sheet 20%
Racing Montevideo Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Cerro Largo Racing Montevideo
Matches Played 28 27
Wins 8 11
Draws 10 10
Losses 10 6
Goals Scored 1.04 1.04
Goals Conceded 1.11 0.96
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 17, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Racing Montevideo vs Cerro Largo
1:0
Apr 26, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Cerro Largo vs Racing Montevideo
0:1
Oct 25, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Cerro Largo vs Racing Montevideo
2:2
Apr 28, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Racing Montevideo vs Cerro Largo
1:1
Oct 5, 2024 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Racing Montevideo vs Cerro Largo
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Cerro Largo Compare

Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Racing Montevideo Compare

Top Goalscorer Cotugno G.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Cerro Largo 42 / 100
Racing Montevideo 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Cerro Largo Racing Montevideo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Cerro Largo scored in 68% of their last 28 outings.

Racing Montevideo's defensive record shows goals conceded in 63% of 27 matches.

H2H data points to 1.60 goals as a typical output.

Cerro Largo has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Cerro Largo VS Racing Montevideo
0.63 Goals Scored 1.13
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.63
75% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Cerro Largo

(Home)
30 Sept
Cerro Largo
1 : 0
Rentistas
26 Sept
Cerro Largo
0 : 2
Club Nacional
19 Sept
Maldonado
2 : 0
Cerro Largo
12 Sept
Cerro Largo
0 : 0
Central Esp.
09 Sept
Cerro Largo
1 : 1
Defensor Sp.
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Racing Montevideo

(Away)
26 Sept
Progreso
2 : 1
Racing Montevideo
20 Sept
Liverpool M.
0 : 0
Racing Montevideo
17 Sept
Juventud
3 : 0
Racing Montevideo
12 Sept
Racing Montevideo
3 : 2
Boston River
09 Sept
Racing Montevideo
2 : 4
Central Esp.
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Racing Montevideo 15 9 4 2 23:14 31
2 Maldonado 15 9 2 4 24:16 29
3 Albion 15 8 4 3 26:16 28
4 Penarol 15 8 3 4 23:16 27
5 Central Esp. 15 7 3 5 23:22 24
6 Montevideo City 15 6 5 4 22:16 23
7 Club Nacional 15 7 1 7 26:21 22
8 Defensor Sp. 15 5 6 4 13:11 21
9 Liverpool M. 15 5 5 5 20:18 20
10 Wanderers 15 6 2 7 16:21 20
11 Danubio 15 4 6 5 17:21 18
12 Cerro Largo 15 5 2 8 16:19 17
13 Boston River 15 5 2 8 14:20 17
14 Juventud 15 4 3 8 17:22 15
15 Progreso 15 2 4 9 12:23 10
16 CA Cerro 15 2 4 9 8:24 10
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Play Offs)