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Cesena vs Avellino - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie B Stadio Dino Manuzzi, Cesena
Sun, Oct 18, 2026
VS
03:15 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Cesena host Avellino in the Serie B. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. Avellino have shipped 1.42 goals a game lately, while Cesena have conceded 1.48 and scored 1.24. Past meetings favor Cesena slightly — 2-1-2 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Jan 31, 2026, ending 3:1. xG projections (1.81 - 1.19) back Avellino to edge this. The model's pick is Away (2) to win or Under 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

24%
Cesena
35%
Draws
41%
Avellino
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Avellino

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

41% / Low Confidence
  • Avellino carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Avellino are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Cesena Clean Sheet 20%
Avellino Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Cesena Avellino
Matches Played 29 31
Wins 7 14
Draws 11 4
Losses 11 13
Goals Scored 1.24 2.23
Goals Conceded 1.48 1.42
Expected Goals (xG) 1.81 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 31, 2026 Serie B
Avellino vs Cesena
3:1
Nov 9, 2025 Serie B
Cesena vs Avellino
3:0
Feb 10, 2018 Serie B
Avellino vs Cesena
1:1
Sep 15, 2017 Serie B
Cesena vs Avellino
3:1
Apr 22, 2017 Serie B
Avellino vs Cesena
1:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Cesena 24 / 100
Avellino 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Cesena Avellino

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Avellino Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Cesena scored in 66% of their last 29 outings.

Avellino let in goals in 71% of their last 31 matches.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Cesena remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Cesena VS Avellino
1.5 Goals Scored 1.38
1 Goals Conceded 2.13
88% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Cesena

(Home)
10 Oct
Benevento
2 : 0
Cesena
18 Sept
Juve Stabia
1 : 1
Cesena
12 Sept
Cesena
2 : 2
Cremonese
06 Sept
Cesena
1 : 1
Mantova
29 Aug
Entella
1 : 2
Cesena
Page 1 of 6

Avellino

(Away)
09 Oct
Avellino
4 : 1
Sampdoria
19 Sept
Ascoli
3 : 1
Avellino
13 Sept
Avellino
1 : 1
Palermo
06 Sept
Modena
0 : 1
Avellino
29 Aug
Avellino
3 : 0
Vicenza
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Palermo 6 5 1 0 14:7 16
2 Mantova 6 4 2 0 13:6 14
3 Modena 6 4 1 1 11:6 13
4 Sudtirol 6 3 3 0 9:3 12
5 Ascoli 6 3 2 1 7:4 11
6 Avellino 6 3 1 2 11:7 10
7 Pisa 6 3 1 2 11:8 10
8 Benevento 6 3 1 2 8:5 10
9 Verona 6 2 1 3 12:10 7
10 Padova 6 2 1 3 5:8 7
11 Cesena 6 1 4 1 7:8 7
12 Arezzo 6 2 1 3 6:13 7
13 Empoli 6 2 0 4 6:10 6
14 Entella 6 1 3 2 8:7 6
15 Cremonese 6 1 3 2 5:7 6
16 Vicenza 6 1 2 3 7:13 5
17 Carrarese 6 1 1 4 4:6 4
18 Sampdoria 6 1 1 4 6:13 4
19 Catanzaro 6 1 0 5 6:12 3
20 Juve Stabia 6 1 3 2 5:8 2
Promotion - Serie A 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Serie B (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie B (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie B (Play Out)