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Cesena vs Fossombrone

World World

Club Friendly
Sat, Aug 1, 2026
VS
06:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Cesena host Fossombrone in the Club Friendly. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. Fossombrone have shipped 1.25 goals a game lately, while Cesena have conceded 1.63 and scored 0.88. No recent head-to-head history to lean on here — form is the better guide. xG projections (1.06 - 1.31) back Fossombrone to edge this. The model's pick is Home (1) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Cesena
6%
Draws
4%
Fossombrone
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Cesena

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Fossombrone carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Cesena's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.4%
Cesena Clean Sheet 18%
Fossombrone Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Cesena Fossombrone
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 8 10
Draws 8 7
Losses 13 12
Goals Scored 0.88 1
Goals Conceded 1.63 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.63 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Cesena 85 / 100
Fossombrone 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Cesena Fossombrone

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CES Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Cesena found the back of the net in 66% of recent matches (29 games).

Fossombrone let in goals in 62% of their last 29 matches.

Cesena has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Fossombrone lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Cesena VS Fossombrone
0.88 Goals Scored 1
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Cesena

(Home)
25 Jul
Cesena
1 : 0
Carpi
21 Jul
Cesena
5 : 0
SSD Sampierana
08 May
Cesena
3 : 4
Padova
01 May
Carrarese
0 : 0
Cesena
25 Apr
Cesena
0 : 0
Sampdoria
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Fossombrone

(Away)
03 May
Recanatese
2 : 0
Fossombrone
26 Apr
Fossombrone
3 : 1
Castelfidardo
19 Apr
Atletico Ascoli
1 : 1
Fossombrone
12 Apr
Fossombrone
1 : 2
Ancona
02 Apr
San Marino Calcio
3 : 0
Fossombrone
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