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Cesena vs Fossombrone

World World

Club Friendly
Our Tip

Match Events

45' Event
Shpendi C.
(Penalty)
70' Event
Pagano R.
72' Event
Bertaccini F.

AI Match Summary

The Club Friendly game between Cesena and Fossombrone finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Cesena.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
Cesena
35%
Draws
30%
Fossombrone
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Fossombrone carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Cesena's way, sitting at 70%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 27%
Over 4.5 Goals 12%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
Cesena Clean Sheet 68%
Fossombrone Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Cesena Fossombrone
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 8 12
Draws 11 7
Losses 11 10
Goals Scored 1.3 0.83
Goals Conceded 1.47 1.07
Expected Goals (xG) 1.73 0.68
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 1, 2026 Club Friendly
Cesena vs Fossombrone
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Cesena Compare

Top Goalscorer Pagano R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Bertaccini F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.33
Avg xA / game 0.86

Fossombrone Compare

Avg xG / game 0.62
Avg xA / game 0.38

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Cesena 77 / 100
Fossombrone 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Cesena Fossombrone

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Cesena Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Solid form: Cesena remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Cesena scored in 70% of their last 30 games.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Fossombrone lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Cesena VS Fossombrone
1.88 Goals Scored 0.86
0.5 Goals Conceded 1.57
50% Over 1.5 71%
50% Over 2.5 57%
25% Over 3.5 29%

Recent Form & Match History

Cesena

(Home)
18 Sept
Juve Stabia
1 : 1
Cesena
12 Sept
Cesena
2 : 2
Cremonese
06 Sept
Cesena
1 : 1
Mantova
29 Aug
Entella
1 : 2
Cesena
23 Aug
Cesena
1 : 1
Sampdoria
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Fossombrone

(Away)
16 Sept
Sporting Trestina
0 : 1
Fossombrone
12 Sept
Fossombrone
0 : 4
Aquila Calcio
06 Sept
Giulianova
1 : 2
Fossombrone
01 Aug
Cesena
3 : 0
Fossombrone
03 May
Recanatese
2 : 0
Fossombrone
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