Sport Picks

Stadium Background

CF Os Belenenses vs Mafra

Portugal Portugal

Liga 3 2025/2026 Estádio do Restelo, Lisbon
Our Tip

Match Events

39'
Moreira R.
52'
Matos R.
55' Event
Horta Leitao D.

AI Match Summary

The Liga 3 2025/2026 game between CF Os Belenenses and Mafra finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward CF Os Belenenses.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

53%
CF Os Belenenses
15%
Draws
32%
Mafra
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: CF Os Belenenses

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

53% / Medium Confidence
  • CF Os Belenenses carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 53% — that's where the model lands on CF Os Belenenses taking it.
  • Regular Liga 3 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 38%
CF Os Belenenses Clean Sheet 68%
Mafra Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric CF Os Belenenses Mafra
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 16 13
Draws 7 5
Losses 6 11
Goals Scored 1.69 1.55
Goals Conceded 1.07 1.45
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 16, 2026 Liga 3
CF Os Belenenses vs Mafra
3:1
Mar 22, 2026 Liga 3
Mafra vs CF Os Belenenses
1:4
Nov 9, 2025 Liga 3
CF Os Belenenses vs Mafra
2:1
Aug 9, 2025 Liga 3
Mafra vs CF Os Belenenses
1:1
Feb 2, 2024 Liga Portugal 2
Mafra vs CF Os Belenenses
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

CF Os Belenenses Compare

Top Goalscorer Horta Leitao D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Bruno L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

Mafra Compare

Top Goalscorer Pinto R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

CF Os Belenenses 95 / 100
Mafra 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
CF Os Belenenses Mafra

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CF Os Belenenses Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: CF Os Belenenses scored in 86% of their last 29 outings.

H2H data points to 3.20 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: CF Os Belenenses remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Mafra let in goals in 69% of their last 29 matches.

Scoring Trends

CF Os Belenenses VS Mafra
2 Goals Scored 1.63
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.88
75% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

CF Os Belenenses

(Home)
19 Sept
Beira Mar
0 : 2
CF Os Belenenses
13 Sept
CF Os Belenenses
1 : 0
Atletico CP
06 Sept
Vitoria Sernache
1 : 3
CF Os Belenenses
30 Aug
Lusitano GC
1 : 2
CF Os Belenenses
22 Aug
CF Os Belenenses
5 : 0
Santarem
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Mafra

(Away)
19 Sept
Mafra
3 : 2
Tirsense
12 Sept
Oliveirense
2 : 1
Mafra
05 Sept
Mafra
1 : 0
Covilha
29 Aug
Malveira
2 : 3
Mafra
22 Aug
Lusitano GC
2 : 1
Mafra
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Amarante FC 14 9 4 1 22:11 31
2 Academica 14 8 4 2 23:13 28
3 CF Os Belenenses 14 7 5 2 25:16 26
4 Mafra 14 5 2 7 17:24 17
5 Vitoria Guimaraes B 14 4 5 5 16:17 17
6 Varzim 14 4 2 8 13:19 14
7 Santarem 14 2 4 8 13:20 10
8 Trofense 14 2 4 8 7:16 10
Promotion - Liga Portugal 2 (Main)
Promotion - Liga Portugal 2 2025/2026 (Relegation)