Sport Picks

Portugal

Liga 3 Estádio do Restelo

CF Os Belenenses

3 - 1

Mafra

Our Tip

Match Events

39'

Moreira R.

52'

Matos R.

55'

Horta Leitao D.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Liga 3 game between CF Os Belenenses and Mafra finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward CF Os Belenenses.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%

CF Os Belenenses

20%

Draws

38%

Mafra

Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: CF Os Belenenses

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

67% / Medium Confidence

CF Os Belenenses carry the better recent record into this one.
42% — that's where the model lands on CF Os Belenenses taking it.
Regular Liga 3 form gives a decent read on both sides.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 38%

Over 3.5 Goals 22%

Over 4.5 Goals 10%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75%

CF Os Belenenses Clean Sheet 19%

Mafra Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	CF Os Belenenses	Mafra
Matches Played	32	31
Wins	18	14
Draws	7	8
Losses	7	9
Goals Scored	1.75	1.5
Goals Conceded	1	1.75
Expected Goals (xG)	1.75	1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.00	1.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 16, 2026 Liga 3

CF Os Belenenses vs Mafra

Possession: 48% - 57% Cards: 2 - 2

3:1

Mar 22, 2026 Liga 3

Mafra vs CF Os Belenenses

Possession: 53% - 56% Cards: 4 - 1

1:4

Nov 9, 2025 Liga 3

CF Os Belenenses vs Mafra

Possession: 58% - 56% Cards: 4 - 2

2:1

Aug 9, 2025 Liga 3

Mafra vs CF Os Belenenses

Possession: 46% - 48% Cards: 1 - 3

1:1

Feb 2, 2024 Liga Portugal 2

Mafra vs CF Os Belenenses

Possession: 44% - 57% Cards: 3 - 3

1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

CF Os Belenenses Compare

Top Goalscorer Horta Leitao D.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Bruno L.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.35

Avg xA / game 0.88

Mafra Compare

Top Goalscorer Pinto R.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.36

Avg xA / game 0.83

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

CF Os Belenenses 42 / 100

Mafra 36 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

CF Os Belenenses Mafra

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes

Correct Score 1:1

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: CF Os Belenenses scored in 81% of their last 32 outings.

H2H data points to 3.20 goals as a typical output.

Defensive concern: Mafra conceded in 68% of 31 recent games.

CF Os Belenenses went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

CF Os Belenenses VS Mafra

1.75 Goals Scored 1.5

1 Goals Conceded 1.75

75% Over 1.5 88%

63% Over 2.5 50%

38% Over 3.5 38%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Amarante FC	14	9	4	1	22:11	31
2	Academica	14	8	4	2	23:13	28
3	CF Os Belenenses	14	7	5	2	25:16	26
4	Mafra	14	5	2	7	17:24	17
5	Vitoria Guimaraes B	14	4	5	5	16:17	17
6	Varzim	14	4	2	8	13:19	14
7	Santarem	14	2	4	8	13:20	10
8	Trofense	14	2	4	8	7:16	10