Sport Picks

Portugal

Liga 3 2025/2026 Estádio do Restelo

CF Os Belenenses

1 - 1

Santarem

Our Tip

Match Events

Ayiah E.

Assist: Aguas G.

26'

Ventura B.

40'

Bruno L.

Assist: Afonso A.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Liga 3 2025/2026 game between CF Os Belenenses and Santarem finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%

CF Os Belenenses

33%

Draws

27%

Santarem

Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: CF Os Belenenses

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence

Santarem haven't matched CF Os Belenenses's recent run of results.
40% — that's where the model lands on CF Os Belenenses taking it.
This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%

Over 1.5 Goals 69%

Over 2.5 Goals 25%

Over 3.5 Goals 22%

Over 4.5 Goals 10%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.2%

CF Os Belenenses Clean Sheet 68%

Santarem Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	CF Os Belenenses	Santarem
Matches Played	29	30
Wins	15	7
Draws	7	10
Losses	7	13
Goals Scored	1.75	0.75
Goals Conceded	1	1.25
Expected Goals (xG)	1.75	0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.00	1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 2, 2026 Liga 3

CF Os Belenenses vs Santarem

Possession: 52% - 50% Cards: 4 - 2

1:1

Mar 8, 2026 Liga 3

Santarem vs CF Os Belenenses

Possession: 43% - 56% Cards: 3 - 1

0:2

Jan 24, 2026 Liga 3

Santarem vs CF Os Belenenses

Possession: 45% - 59% Cards: 2 - 1

2:1

Nov 2, 2025 Liga 3

CF Os Belenenses vs Santarem

Possession: 50% - 54% Cards: 4 - 2

0:2

Jan 12, 2025 Liga 3

CF Os Belenenses vs Santarem

Possession: 53% - 48% Cards: 3 - 1

2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

CF Os Belenenses Compare

Top Goalscorer Bruno L.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.35

Avg xA / game 0.88

Santarem Compare

Top Goalscorer Ayiah E.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.68

Avg xA / game 0.42

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

CF Os Belenenses 50 / 100

Santarem 26 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

CF Os Belenenses Santarem

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick OS Win (1)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No

Correct Score 1:0

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Santarem has conceded goals in 80% of their last 30 outings.

CF Os Belenenses found the back of the net in 79% of recent matches (29 games).

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

CF Os Belenenses went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

CF Os Belenenses VS Santarem

1.75 Goals Scored 0.75

1 Goals Conceded 1.25

75% Over 1.5 63%

63% Over 2.5 25%

38% Over 3.5 13%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Amarante FC	14	9	4	1	22:11	31
2	Academica	14	8	4	2	23:13	28
3	CF Os Belenenses	14	7	5	2	25:16	26
4	Mafra	14	5	2	7	17:24	17
5	Vitoria Guimaraes B	14	4	5	5	16:17	17
6	Varzim	14	4	2	8	13:19	14
7	Santarem	14	2	4	8	13:20	10
8	Trofense	14	2	4	8	7:16	10