Sport Picks

Africa

Africa Cup of Nations Stade Olympique Maréchal Idriss Déby Itno

Burundi

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Chad play Burundi in the Africa Cup of Nations. Burundi are favorites here. Recently, Chad averaged 0.57 goals scored and 2 conceded. Burundi averaged 1.14 goals scored and 1.29 conceded. In past meetings, Chad won 0, Burundi won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on Mar 31, 2026 ended 4:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.75 for Chad and 1.19 for Burundi. This points to a Burundi double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

17%

Chad

21%

Draws

62%

Burundi

Draw rate projection: 21% Favored: Burundi

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

91% / Very High Confidence

Chad picked up more points recently compared to Burundi.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.75 vs 1.19 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 68%

Over 2.5 Goals 48%

Over 3.5 Goals 29%

Over 4.5 Goals 14%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%

Chad Clean Sheet 20%

Burundi Clean Sheet 19%

First Half Goal 61%

Second Half Goal 65%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Chad	Burundi
Matches Played	30	28
Wins	2	9
Draws	8	4
Losses	20	15
Goals Scored	0.57	1.14
Goals Conceded	2	1.29
Expected Goals (xG)	0.75	0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.75	0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 31, 2026 Africa Cup of Nations

Burundi vs Chad

Possession: 58% - 54% Cards: 3 - 1

4:0

Mar 27, 2026 Africa Cup of Nations

Chad vs Burundi

Possession: 51% - 56% Cards: 2 - 4

0:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Chad Compare

Avg xG / game 0.58

Avg xA / game 0.38

Burundi Compare

Top Goalscorer Liongola J.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Kanakimana B.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 0.57

Avg xA / game 0.35

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Chad 19 / 100

Burundi 60 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Chad Burundi

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Burundi Win (2)

Secondary Pick Burundi & Under 3.5

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +88.9%

11.11

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +14.2%

2.38

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Chad attacking → ← attacking Burundi

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Chad scored in 47% of their last 30 games.

Burundi let in goals in 68% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

Chad went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Burundi lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

14 Points in last 5 31

0.75 Goals expected (xG) 0.63

1.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.75