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Chapada vs Uniao Rondonopolis Prediction & H2H Stats

Brazil Brazil

Matogrossense
Our Tip

Match Events

6' Event
Carlos Henrique
58' Event
Darlan Bispo
67' Event
Rocha J.

AI Match Summary

Chapada in this Matogrossense matchup, with the score ending 3-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Chapada.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Chapada
20%
Draws
47%
Uniao Rondonopolis
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Uniao Rondonopolis

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

33% / Low Confidence
  • Chapada have won more games recently than Uniao Rondonopolis.
  • Model gives Chapada a 33% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Matogrossense form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28%
Chapada Clean Sheet 68%
Uniao Rondonopolis Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Chapada Uniao Rondonopolis
Matches Played 21 29
Wins 10 8
Draws 5 9
Losses 6 12
Goals Scored 1.81 0.9
Goals Conceded 1.1 1.28
Expected Goals (xG) 1.60 1.02
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 23, 2026 Copa FMF (Mato Grosso)
Uniao Rondonopolis vs Chapada
1:0
Feb 4, 2026 Matogrossense
Chapada vs Uniao Rondonopolis
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Chapada Compare

Top Goalscorer Carlos Henrique
1 Goals
Assists Leader Rocha J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.23
Avg xA / game 0.8

Uniao Rondonopolis Compare

Top Goalscorer Darlan Bispo
1 Goals
Assists Leader Gilberto Alemao
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.93
Avg xA / game 0.57

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Chapada 86 / 100
Uniao Rondonopolis 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Chapada Uniao Rondonopolis

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Chapada Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Chapada found the back of the net in 71% of recent matches (21 games).

Defensive concern: Uniao Rondonopolis conceded in 62% of 29 recent games.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Chapada went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Chapada VS Uniao Rondonopolis
1.33 Goals Scored 1.38
0.67 Goals Conceded 1.88
50% Over 1.5 75%
17% Over 2.5 75%
17% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Chapada

(Home)
30 Sept
Chapada
2 : 0
Santa Cruz MT
27 Sept
Várzea Grande EC
2 : 5
Chapada
23 Sept
Uniao Rondonopolis
1 : 0
Chapada
16 Sept
Chapada
1 : 1
Uirapuru
08 Feb
Sport Sinop
2 : 0
Chapada
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Uniao Rondonopolis

(Away)
03 Oct
Uirapuru
1 : 2
Uniao Rondonopolis
30 Sept
Uniao Rondonopolis
0 : 0
Uirapuru
27 Sept
Santa Cruz MT
4 : 0
Uniao Rondonopolis
23 Sept
Uniao Rondonopolis
1 : 0
Chapada
20 Sept
Várzea Grande EC
1 : 3
Uniao Rondonopolis
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Luverdense 9 5 2 2 7:3 17
2 Mixto 9 4 3 2 13:4 15
3 Operario VG 9 4 2 3 9:9 14
4 Sport Sinop 9 3 4 2 6:4 13
5 Cuiaba 9 3 3 3 8:8 12
6 Nova Mutum EC 9 3 3 3 13:15 12
7 Chapada 9 3 2 4 12:13 11
8 Uniao Rondonopolis 9 2 4 3 7:7 10
9 Primavera AC 9 1 7 1 6:9 10
10 Várzea Grande EC 9 1 2 6 5:14 5
Promotion - Matogrossense (Play Offs)
Promotion - Matogrossense (Play Offs)
Relegation - Matogrossense 2 2027 (Main)