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Charleroi vs Rayo Vallecano

World World

Club Friendly
Sat, Aug 1, 2026
VS
05:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Charleroi host Rayo Vallecano in the Club Friendly. Little to choose between these two on current form. Charleroi have averaged 1.38 scored and 1.13 conceded recently, against Rayo Vallecano's 1.25 scored and 0.5 conceded. Past meetings favor Charleroi slightly — 0-0-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Jul 22, 2023, ending 1:1. The numbers (0.94 xG vs 1.19) point toward Charleroi. The model's pick is Home (1) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Charleroi
39%
Draws
31%
Rayo Vallecano
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Attack-wise there's a gap: Charleroi at 1.38 per game, Rayo Vallecano at 1.25.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Charleroi Clean Sheet 20%
Rayo Vallecano Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Charleroi Rayo Vallecano
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 11 11
Draws 6 7
Losses 12 11
Goals Scored 1.38 1.25
Goals Conceded 1.13 0.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 0.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 22, 2023 Club Friendly
Charleroi vs Rayo Vallecano
1:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Charleroi 31 / 100
Rayo Vallecano 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Charleroi Rayo Vallecano

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CHA Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Charleroi's goal record stands at 83% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Rayo Vallecano let in goals in 69% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Charleroi went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Charleroi VS Rayo Vallecano
1.38 Goals Scored 1.25
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.5
75% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 13%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Charleroi

(Home)
25 Jul
Charleroi
2 : 1
RFC Seraing
25 Jul
Lens
2 : 2
Charleroi
17 Jul
Feyenoord
3 : 1
Charleroi
11 Jul
Charleroi
2 : 2
Reims
23 May
St. Liege
0 : 2
Charleroi
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Rayo Vallecano

(Away)
26 Jul
Feyenoord
2 : 1
Rayo Vallecano
17 Jul
Hearts
2 : 1
Rayo Vallecano
27 May
Crystal Palace
1 : 0
Rayo Vallecano
23 May
Alaves
1 : 2
Rayo Vallecano
17 May
Rayo Vallecano
2 : 0
Villarreal
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