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Charleroi vs St. Liege

Belgium Belgium

Jupiler Pro League 2025/2026 Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Charleroi
Our Tip

Match Events

17'
Sub
Ilaimaharitra M. In: Karamoko I.
Out: Ilaimaharitra M.
48'
Ousou A.
54'
Camara E.

AI Match Summary

St. Liege in this Jupiler Pro League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored St. Liege.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

70%
Charleroi
17%
Draws
13%
St. Liege
Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Charleroi

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

88% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to St. Liege lately — more wins on the board than Charleroi.
  • Charleroi are the model's pick here, at 70%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.6%
Charleroi Clean Sheet 68%
St. Liege Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Charleroi St. Liege
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 11 13
Draws 6 6
Losses 12 10
Goals Scored 1.38 2
Goals Conceded 1.25 0.75
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 23, 2026 Jupiler Pro League
St. Liege vs Charleroi
0:2
Apr 18, 2026 Jupiler Pro League
Charleroi vs St. Liege
1:2
Jan 18, 2026 Jupiler Pro League
Charleroi vs St. Liege
2:0
Oct 31, 2025 Jupiler Pro League
St. Liege vs Charleroi
3:1
May 4, 2025 Jupiler Pro League
St. Liege vs Charleroi
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Charleroi Compare

Top Goalscorer Bernier A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

St. Liege Compare

Top Goalscorer Nguene B.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Mohr T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Charleroi 77 / 100
St. Liege 15 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Charleroi St. Liege

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CHA Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Charleroi found the back of the net in 83% of recent matches (29 games).

Defensive concern: St. Liege conceded in 69% of 29 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.40 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Charleroi remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Charleroi VS St. Liege
1.38 Goals Scored 2
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.75
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Charleroi

(Home)
25 Jul
Charleroi
2 : 1
RFC Seraing
25 Jul
Lens
2 : 2
Charleroi
17 Jul
Feyenoord
3 : 1
Charleroi
11 Jul
Charleroi
2 : 2
Reims
23 May
St. Liege
0 : 2
Charleroi
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St. Liege

(Away)
01 Aug
St. Liege
0 : 3
FC Viktoria Koln
26 Jul
St. Liege
2 : 1
RFC Seraing
25 Jul
St. Liege
0 : 1
Juventus
18 Jul
Dunkerque
2 : 0
St. Liege
11 Jul
St. Liege
1 : 0
Francs Borains
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
7 Genk 10 4 5 1 11:6 38
8 St. Liege 10 5 2 3 17:11 37
9 Charleroi 10 5 2 3 12:8 34
10 Westerlo 10 4 1 5 14:17 33
11 Antwerp 10 4 1 5 12:16 31
12 Leuven 10 1 3 6 9:17 23
Promotion - Jupiler Pro League 2025/2026 (Conference League - Play Offs)