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Charleroi vs St. Liege

Belgium Belgium

Jupiler Pro League 2025/2026 Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Charleroi
Our Tip

Match Events

17'
Sub
Ilaimaharitra M. In: Karamoko I.
Out: Ilaimaharitra M.
48'
Ousou A.
54'
Camara E.

AI Match Summary

St. Liege in this Jupiler Pro League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored St. Liege.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

49%
Charleroi
15%
Draws
36%
St. Liege
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Charleroi

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

49% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to St. Liege lately — more wins on the board than Charleroi.
  • Charleroi are the model's pick here, at 70%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
Charleroi Clean Sheet 68%
St. Liege Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Charleroi St. Liege
Matches Played 30 32
Wins 12 16
Draws 5 8
Losses 13 8
Goals Scored 1.53 1.84
Goals Conceded 1.53 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 23, 2026 Jupiler Pro League
St. Liege vs Charleroi
0:2
Apr 18, 2026 Jupiler Pro League
Charleroi vs St. Liege
1:2
Jan 18, 2026 Jupiler Pro League
Charleroi vs St. Liege
2:0
Oct 31, 2025 Jupiler Pro League
St. Liege vs Charleroi
3:1
May 4, 2025 Jupiler Pro League
St. Liege vs Charleroi
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Charleroi Compare

Top Goalscorer Bernier A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

St. Liege Compare

Top Goalscorer Nguene B.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Mohr T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Charleroi 77 / 100
St. Liege 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Charleroi St. Liege

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Charleroi Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Charleroi found the back of the net in 87% of recent matches (30 games).

Defensive concern: St. Liege conceded in 63% of 32 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.40 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Charleroi remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Charleroi VS St. Liege
2.13 Goals Scored 1.5
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.38
88% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 63%
63% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Charleroi

(Home)
19 Sept
Charleroi
3 : 2
Cercle Brugge
13 Sept
Waregem
0 : 1
Charleroi
05 Sept
Charleroi
2 : 3
Royale Union SG
29 Aug
Kortrijk
1 : 3
Charleroi
22 Aug
Charleroi
2 : 0
KV Mechelen
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St. Liege

(Away)
18 Sept
Gent
2 : 1
St. Liege
12 Sept
Westerlo
4 : 2
St. Liege
05 Sept
St. Liege
1 : 0
Antwerp
29 Aug
Leuven
1 : 2
St. Liege
21 Aug
St. Liege
2 : 0
RAAL La Louviere
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
7 Genk 10 4 5 1 11:6 38
8 St. Liege 10 5 2 3 17:11 37
9 Charleroi 10 5 2 3 12:8 34
10 Westerlo 10 4 1 5 14:17 33
11 Antwerp 10 4 1 5 12:16 31
12 Leuven 10 1 3 6 9:17 23
Promotion - Jupiler Pro League 2025/2026 (Conference League - Play Offs)