Sport Picks
Charlotte Independence vs Portland Hearts of Pine - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
USA
USL League One American Legion Memorial Stadium, Charlotte, NC 
Match Events
15'
15'
Manin R.
20'
20'
Bakero J.
Assist: Dimick C.
35'
35'
Riascos K.
AI Match Summary
Charlotte Independence in this USL League One matchup, with the score ending 3-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Charlotte Independence.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
45%
35%
20%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Charlotte Independence
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
45%
/ Medium Confidence
- Charlotte Independence have won more games recently than Portland Hearts of Pine.
- 45% — that's where the model lands on Charlotte Independence taking it.
- Regular USL League One form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 84.6%
Charlotte Independence Clean Sheet 16%
Portland Hearts of Pine Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Charlotte Independence | Portland Hearts of Pine |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 29 |
| Wins | 22 | 7 |
| Draws | 4 | 8 |
| Losses | 4 | 14 |
| Goals Scored | 2.37 | 1.55 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.43 | 2.14 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 2.19 | 1.50 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 2, 2026 USL League One
Charlotte Independence vs Portland Hearts of Pine
3:2
Aug 30, 2025 USL League One
Portland Hearts of Pine vs Charlotte Independence
4:2
Jul 19, 2025 USL League One
Charlotte Independence vs Portland Hearts of Pine
1:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Charlotte Independence Compare
Top Goalscorer Stefano Pinho
2 Goals Assists Leader Bakero J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.68
Avg xA / game 1.09
Portland Hearts of Pine Compare
Top Goalscorer Kidd M.
1 Goals Assists Leader Poon-Angeron M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Charlotte Independence 66 / 100
Portland Hearts of Pine 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Charlotte Independence Portland Hearts of Pine
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Charlotte Independence Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Charlotte Independence scored in 93% of their last 30 outings.
Portland Hearts of Pine let in goals in 97% of their last 29 matches.
H2H data points to 4.33 goals as a typical output.
Solid form: Charlotte Independence remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Charlotte Independence VS Portland Hearts of Pine
2.25 Goals Scored 1.5
1.5 Goals Conceded 2.13
100% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Charlotte Independence
(Home) 03 Oct
Sarasota Paradise
2 : 3 Charlotte Independence
26 Sept
Charlotte Independence
1 : 1 Fort Wayne
19 Sept
Richmond Kickers
1 : 2 Charlotte Independence
17 Sept
Athletic Club Boise
1 : 1 Charlotte Independence
12 Sept
Charlotte Independence
5 : 4 Westchester SC
Page 1 of 6
26 Sept
Charlotte Independence
1 : 1 Fort Wayne
12 Sept
Charlotte Independence
5 : 4 Westchester SC
02 Sept
Charlotte Independence
3 : 2 Portland Hearts of Pine
28 Aug
Charlotte Independence
5 : 0 AV Alta FC
15 Aug
Charlotte Independence
3 : 1 Sarasota Paradise
Page 1 of 4
Portland Hearts of Pine
(Away) 10 Oct
Portland Hearts of Pine
1 : 2 Athletic Club Boise
04 Oct
Spokane Velocity
3 : 3 Portland Hearts of Pine
26 Sept
Portland Hearts of Pine
1 : 4 Sarasota Paradise
19 Sept
Chattanooga Red Wolves
1 : 1 Portland Hearts of Pine
13 Sept
Portland Hearts of Pine
1 : 0 AV Alta FC
Page 1 of 6
04 Oct
Spokane Velocity
3 : 3 Portland Hearts of Pine
19 Sept
Chattanooga Red Wolves
1 : 1 Portland Hearts of Pine
02 Sept
Charlotte Independence
3 : 2 Portland Hearts of Pine
22 Aug
Richmond Kickers
1 : 1 Portland Hearts of Pine
19 Aug
One Knoxville
1 : 1 Portland Hearts of Pine
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charlotte Independence | 30 | 19 | 6 | 5 | 70:42 | 63 |
| 2 | Union Omaha | 30 | 19 | 4 | 7 | 53:32 | 61 |
| 3 | Forward Madison | 30 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 52:30 | 52 |
| 4 | Athletic Club Boise | 30 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 47:40 | 52 |
| 5 | One Knoxville | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 49:34 | 51 |
| 6 | Spokane Velocity | 27 | 14 | 5 | 8 | 41:36 | 47 |
| 7 | Chattanooga Red Wolves | 30 | 14 | 4 | 12 | 50:43 | 46 |
| 8 | Fort Wayne | 30 | 12 | 9 | 9 | 46:37 | 45 |
| 9 | FC Naples | 29 | 11 | 4 | 14 | 34:44 | 37 |
| 10 | Westchester SC | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 51:48 | 36 |
| 11 | Corpus Christi FC | 29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 33:43 | 36 |
| 12 | Sarasota Paradise | 28 | 9 | 6 | 13 | 39:43 | 33 |
| 13 | AV Alta FC | 29 | 8 | 8 | 13 | 35:42 | 32 |
| 14 | Portland Hearts of Pine | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 44:55 | 31 |
| 15 | New York Cosmos | 29 | 7 | 4 | 18 | 36:59 | 25 |
| 16 | Greenville Triumph | 28 | 6 | 5 | 17 | 30:52 | 23 |
| 17 | Richmond Kickers | 29 | 6 | 5 | 18 | 30:60 | 23 |
Promotion - USL League One (Play Offs)
