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Chaves U19 vs Vitoria Guimaraes U19

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato Nacional U19
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Chaves U19 play Vitoria Guimaraes U19 in the Campeonato Nacional U19. It looks like a close match. Recently, Chaves U19 averaged 0.7 goals scored and 1.8 conceded. Vitoria Guimaraes U19 averaged 1.43 goals scored and 1.7 conceded. In past meetings, Chaves U19 won 1, Vitoria Guimaraes U19 won 1, and they drew 3. Their last match on Apr 3, 2026 ended 2:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.44 for Chaves U19 and 1.94 for Vitoria Guimaraes U19. This points to a Vitoria Guimaraes U19 double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

21%
Chaves U19
35%
Draws
44%
Vitoria Guimaraes U19
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Vitoria Guimaraes U19

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

80% / High Confidence
  • Chaves U19 picked up more points recently compared to Vitoria Guimaraes U19.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.44 vs 1.94 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 71%
Over 2.5 Goals 55%
Over 3.5 Goals 33%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 57%
Chaves U19 Clean Sheet 10%
Vitoria Guimaraes U19 Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 64%
Second Half Goal 67%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Chaves U19 Vitoria Guimaraes U19
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 3 11
Draws 9 6
Losses 18 13
Goals Scored 0.7 1.43
Goals Conceded 1.8 1.7
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 2.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 1.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 3, 2026 Campeonato Nacional U19
Chaves U19 vs Vitoria Guimaraes U19
2:1
Feb 7, 2026 Campeonato Nacional U19
Vitoria Guimaraes U19 vs Chaves U19
1:1
Dec 13, 2025 Campeonato Nacional U19
Chaves U19 vs Vitoria Guimaraes U19
0:1
Aug 30, 2025 Campeonato Nacional U19
Vitoria Guimaraes U19 vs Chaves U19
0:0
Nov 30, 2024 Campeonato Nacional U19
Vitoria Guimaraes U19 vs Chaves U19
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Chaves U19 Compare

Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Vitoria Guimaraes U19 Compare

Top Goalscorer Carrera R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.16
Avg xA / game 1.32

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Chaves U19 21 / 100
Vitoria Guimaraes U19 42 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Chaves U19 Vitoria Guimaraes U19

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Vitoria Guimaraes U19 or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +61.5%
7.69
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12.2%
2.04
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Chaves U19 attacking → ← attacking Vitoria Guimaraes U19

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Chaves U19 scored in 50% of their last 30 games.

Vitoria Guimaraes U19 let in goals in 80% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Chaves U19 went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Vitoria Guimaraes U19 lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

18 Points in last 5 39
1.00 Goals expected (xG) 2.38
1.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.88

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1FC Porto U1918161162:1949
2Gil Vicente U1918102631:2332
3Rio Ave U1918101732:3131
4Famalicao U191893635:2930
5Vitoria Guimaraes U191883722:2727
6Braga U191883732:2627
7Vizela U191854930:3919
8Pacos Ferreira U191854922:3719
9Moreirense U1918441020:2716
10Chaves U1918051310:385
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Benfica U1918106231:1436
2Leiria U191886430:2330
3Sporting CP U191885527:1529
4Santa Clara U191877424:1728
5Academico Viseu U191859423:1924
6Torreense U191864817:2022
7Alverca U191863923:2621
8Belenenses U191855813:2320
9Tondela U191845911:2617
10Mafra U191836922:3815