Sport Picks
Chaves vs Oliveirense
Portugal
Liga Portugal 2 2025/2026 Estadio Municipal de Chaves, Chaves 
Match Events
27'
27'
Silva J.
37'
37'
Pinho P.
47'
47'
Kusso D.
AI Match Summary
Chaves in this Liga Portugal 2 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Chaves.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
36%
44%
20%
Draw rate projection: 44% Favored: Draw
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
71%
/ Medium Confidence
- Chaves have won more games recently than Oliveirense.
- 44% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
- Regular Liga Portugal 2 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- Chaves have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 73%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.2%
Chaves Clean Sheet 19%
Oliveirense Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Chaves | Oliveirense |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 12 | 7 |
| Draws | 1 | 6 |
| Losses | 16 | 16 |
| Goals Scored | 2.13 | 1 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.5 | 1.43 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 2.13 | 1.00 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.50 | 1.43 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 27, 2026 Liga Portugal 2
Chaves vs Oliveirense
2:1
Dec 12, 2025 Liga Portugal 2
Oliveirense vs Chaves
2:3
Mar 15, 2025 Liga Portugal 2
Chaves vs Oliveirense
4:0
Oct 26, 2024 Liga Portugal 2
Oliveirense vs Chaves
0:3
Jul 31, 2024 Club Friendly
Chaves vs Oliveirense
2:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Chaves Compare
Top Goalscorer Kusso D.
1 Goals Assists Leader Esajas R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.64
Avg xA / game 1.06
Oliveirense Compare
Top Goalscorer Lopes A.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Chaves 36 / 100
Oliveirense 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Chaves Oliveirense
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick OLI Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
H2H data points to 3.80 goals as a typical output.
Chaves found the back of the net in 66% of recent matches (29 games).
Oliveirense let in goals in 66% of their last 29 matches.
Chaves has registered 1 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Chaves VS Oliveirense
2.13 Goals Scored 1
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.43
75% Over 1.5 71%
75% Over 2.5 57%
50% Over 3.5 14%
Recent Form & Match History
Chaves
(Home) 02 Aug
Academico Viseu
1 : 0 Chaves
01 Aug
Vitoria Guimaraes
2 : 0 Chaves
25 Jul
Chaves
2 : 3 Vitoria Guimaraes B
22 Jul
Chaves
2 : 1 Amarante FC
18 Jul
Vizela
1 : 0 Chaves
Page 1 of 6
25 Jul
Chaves
2 : 3 Vitoria Guimaraes B
22 Jul
Chaves
2 : 1 Amarante FC
15 Jul
Chaves
4 : 1 AD Fafe
08 Jul
Chaves
1 : 0 Chaves B
09 May
Chaves
1 : 2 Leixoes
Page 1 of 3
Oliveirense
(Away) 17 May
Oliveirense
1 : 5 FC Felgueiras
09 May
Feirense
1 : 2 Oliveirense
02 May
Oliveirense
0 : 0 Lusitania FC
27 Apr
Chaves
2 : 1 Oliveirense
22 Apr
Oliveirense
3 : 0 Benfica B
Page 1 of 6
09 May
Feirense
1 : 2 Oliveirense
27 Apr
Chaves
2 : 1 Oliveirense
12 Apr
Leixoes
2 : 0 Oliveirense
21 Mar
Maritimo
1 : 0 Oliveirense
16 Mar
FC Porto B
0 : 0 Oliveirense
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maritimo | 34 | 20 | 6 | 8 | 50:29 | 66 |
| 2 | Academico Viseu | 34 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 58:33 | 59 |
| 3 | Torreense | 34 | 18 | 5 | 11 | 46:33 | 59 |
| 4 | Vizela | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 39:40 | 51 |
| 5 | FC Porto B | 34 | 15 | 6 | 13 | 41:42 | 51 |
| 6 | Leiria | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 52:46 | 50 |
| 7 | Leixoes | 34 | 15 | 5 | 14 | 46:55 | 50 |
| 8 | Feirense | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 37:40 | 46 |
| 9 | Chaves | 34 | 13 | 6 | 15 | 42:40 | 45 |
| 10 | Benfica B | 34 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 43:44 | 44 |
| 11 | FC Felgueiras | 34 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 34:38 | 44 |
| 12 | Lusitania FC | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 44:52 | 43 |
| 13 | Sporting CP B | 34 | 13 | 3 | 18 | 41:34 | 42 |
| 14 | Penafiel | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 37:39 | 41 |
| 15 | Portimonense | 34 | 11 | 7 | 16 | 39:49 | 40 |
| 16 | SC Farense | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 31:37 | 40 |
| 17 | Pacos Ferreira | 34 | 9 | 12 | 13 | 34:48 | 39 |
| 18 | Oliveirense | 34 | 8 | 10 | 16 | 34:49 | 34 |
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Liga Portugal (Main)
Promotion - Liga Portugal 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga 3 (Main)
