Sport Picks
Chaves vs Oliveirense
Portugal
Liga Portugal 2 2025/2026 Estadio Municipal de Chaves, Chaves 
Match Events
27'
27'
Silva J.
37'
37'
Pinho P.
47'
47'
Kusso D.
AI Match Summary
Chaves in this Liga Portugal 2 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Chaves.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
37%
15%
48%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Oliveirense
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
48%
/ Medium Confidence
- Chaves have won more games recently than Oliveirense.
- 48% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
- Regular Liga Portugal 2 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- Chaves have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 74.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Chaves Clean Sheet 11%
Oliveirense Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Chaves | Oliveirense |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 13 | 9 |
| Draws | 1 | 6 |
| Losses | 16 | 15 |
| Goals Scored | 1.33 | 1.2 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.47 | 1.53 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.08 | 1.79 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 27, 2026 Liga Portugal 2
Chaves vs Oliveirense
2:1
Dec 12, 2025 Liga Portugal 2
Oliveirense vs Chaves
2:3
Mar 15, 2025 Liga Portugal 2
Chaves vs Oliveirense
4:0
Oct 26, 2024 Liga Portugal 2
Oliveirense vs Chaves
0:3
Jul 31, 2024 Club Friendly
Chaves vs Oliveirense
2:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Chaves Compare
Top Goalscorer Kusso D.
1 Goals Assists Leader Esajas R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.83
Avg xA / game 0.54
Oliveirense Compare
Top Goalscorer Lopes A.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.63
Avg xA / game 0.99
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Chaves 35 / 100
Oliveirense 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Chaves Oliveirense
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Oliveirense Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
H2H data points to 3.80 goals as a typical output.
Chaves found the back of the net in 70% of recent matches (30 games).
Oliveirense let in goals in 67% of their last 30 matches.
Chaves has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Chaves VS Oliveirense
0.88 Goals Scored 1.71
1.88 Goals Conceded 1.29
63% Over 1.5 86%
50% Over 2.5 71%
38% Over 3.5 43%
Recent Form & Match History
Chaves
(Home) 25 Sept
Chaves
0 : 1 Vitoria Guimaraes
20 Sept
Guarda FC
2 : 3 Chaves
13 Sept
Chaves
1 : 0 Feirense
30 Aug
FC Felgueiras
2 : 1 Chaves
23 Aug
Chaves
2 : 2 AFS
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25 Sept
Chaves
0 : 1 Vitoria Guimaraes
13 Sept
Chaves
1 : 0 Feirense
23 Aug
Chaves
2 : 2 AFS
08 Aug
Chaves
1 : 4 Academica
25 Jul
Chaves
2 : 3 Vitoria Guimaraes B
Page 1 of 3
Oliveirense
(Away) 19 Sept
Oliveirense
1 : 2 Penafiel
12 Sept
Oliveirense
2 : 1 Mafra
06 Sept
Atletico CP
3 : 1 Oliveirense
29 Aug
Oliveirense
4 : 0 Penalva do Castelo
23 Aug
Oliveirense
3 : 2 Vitoria Sernache
Page 1 of 6
06 Sept
Atletico CP
3 : 1 Oliveirense
14 Aug
Santarem
1 : 1 Oliveirense
09 May
Feirense
1 : 2 Oliveirense
27 Apr
Chaves
2 : 1 Oliveirense
12 Apr
Leixoes
2 : 0 Oliveirense
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League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maritimo | 34 | 20 | 6 | 8 | 50:29 | 66 |
| 2 | Academico Viseu | 34 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 58:33 | 59 |
| 3 | Torreense | 34 | 18 | 5 | 11 | 46:33 | 59 |
| 4 | Vizela | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 39:40 | 51 |
| 5 | FC Porto B | 34 | 15 | 6 | 13 | 41:42 | 51 |
| 6 | Leiria | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 52:46 | 50 |
| 7 | Leixoes | 34 | 15 | 5 | 14 | 46:55 | 50 |
| 8 | Feirense | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 37:40 | 46 |
| 9 | Chaves | 34 | 13 | 6 | 15 | 42:40 | 45 |
| 10 | Benfica B | 34 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 43:44 | 44 |
| 11 | FC Felgueiras | 34 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 34:38 | 44 |
| 12 | Lusitania FC | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 44:52 | 43 |
| 13 | Sporting CP B | 34 | 13 | 3 | 18 | 41:34 | 42 |
| 14 | Penafiel | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 37:39 | 41 |
| 15 | Portimonense | 34 | 11 | 7 | 16 | 39:49 | 40 |
| 16 | SC Farense | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 31:37 | 40 |
| 17 | Pacos Ferreira | 34 | 9 | 12 | 13 | 34:48 | 39 |
| 18 | Oliveirense | 34 | 8 | 10 | 16 | 34:49 | 34 |
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Liga Portugal (Main)
Promotion - Liga Portugal 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga 3 (Main)
