Sport Picks

Russia

FNL 2025/2026 Central Stadium

Chelyabinsk

1 - 1

Chernomorets Novorossijsk

Our Tip

Match Events

Zhamaletdinov T.

42'

Gadzhimuradov R.

46'

Sub

Tarba Z. In: Konovalov I.

Out: Tarba Z.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The FNL 2025/2026 game between Chelyabinsk and Chernomorets Novorossijsk finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%

Chelyabinsk

Draws

Chernomorets Novorossijsk

Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Chelyabinsk

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence

Look at the last few games and Chernomorets Novorossijsk come out ahead of Chelyabinsk on wins alone.
Chelyabinsk are the model's pick here, at 90%.
Regular FNL 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 87%

Over 1.5 Goals 77.5%

Over 2.5 Goals 25%

Over 3.5 Goals 22%

Over 4.5 Goals 10%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%

Chelyabinsk Clean Sheet 68%

Chernomorets Novorossijsk Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Chelyabinsk	Chernomorets Novorossijsk
Matches Played	28	30
Wins	7	9
Draws	11	7
Losses	10	14
Goals Scored	0.88	0.83
Goals Conceded	1.75	1.67
Expected Goals (xG)	0.88	0.83
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.75	1.67

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 3, 2026 FNL

Chelyabinsk vs Chernomorets Novorossijsk

Possession: 43% - 55% Cards: 3 - 3

1:1

Oct 25, 2025 FNL

Chernomorets Novorossijsk vs Chelyabinsk

Possession: 51% - 44% Cards: 4 - 2

0:0

Feb 5, 2025 Club Friendly

Chernomorets Novorossijsk vs Chelyabinsk

Possession: 49% - 54% Cards: 2 - 2

0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Chelyabinsk Compare

Top Goalscorer Gudkov Y.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.68

Avg xA / game 0.44

Chernomorets Novorossijsk Compare

Avg xG / game 0.75

Avg xA / game 0.46

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Chelyabinsk 95 / 100

Chernomorets Novorossijsk 10 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Chelyabinsk Chernomorets Novorossijsk

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CHE Win (1)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No

Correct Score 1:0

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Chernomorets Novorossijsk conceded in 80% of 30 recent games.

Chelyabinsk found the back of the net in 68% of recent matches (28 games).

Recent resilience: Chelyabinsk stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Difficult form: Chernomorets Novorossijsk registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Chelyabinsk VS Chernomorets Novorossijsk

0.88 Goals Scored 0.83

1.75 Goals Conceded 1.67

88% Over 1.5 67%

63% Over 2.5 50%

25% Over 3.5 33%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Rodina Moscow	34	19	11	4	58:28	68
2	Fakel Voronezh	34	20	8	6	44:22	68
3	Ural	34	18	7	9	51:31	61
4	R. Volgograd	34	15	11	8	47:26	56
5	Kamaz	34	12	13	9	46:34	49
6	Yenisey	34	13	10	11	37:35	49
7	S. Kostroma	34	12	13	9	46:41	49
8	Shinnik Yaroslavl	34	11	15	8	34:28	48
9	Torpedo Moscow	34	12	10	12	37:39	46
10	Chelyabinsk	34	10	14	10	42:40	44
11	Neftekhimik	34	10	13	11	40:41	43
12	SKA Khabarovsk	34	10	12	12	37:45	42
13	Arsenal Tula	34	8	15	11	42:44	39
14	Ulyanovsk	34	9	10	15	35:48	37
15	Ufa	34	9	10	15	32:40	37
16	Chernomorets Novorossijsk	34	9	8	17	37:49	35
17	Saratov	34	5	11	18	16:44	26
18	FK Chayka Peschanokopskoye	34	5	7	22	30:76	22