Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Cherno More vs Spartak Varna Prediction & H2H Stats

Bulgaria Bulgaria

efbet League Ticha, Varna
Our Tip

Match Events

13'
Trifonov G.
22'
Beyhan B.
33' Event
Granchov A.

AI Match Summary

The efbet League game between Cherno More and Spartak Varna finished 0-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Spartak Varna.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%
Cherno More
35%
Draws
24%
Spartak Varna
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Cherno More

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

41% / Low Confidence
  • Cherno More carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 41% — that's where the model lands on Cherno More taking it.
  • Regular efbet League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
Cherno More Clean Sheet 68%
Spartak Varna Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Cherno More Spartak Varna
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 9 8
Draws 8 8
Losses 11 13
Goals Scored 1 1.1
Goals Conceded 1.43 1.52
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 26, 2026 efbet League
Cherno More vs Spartak Varna
0:3
Feb 7, 2026 efbet League
Cherno More vs Spartak Varna
0:0
Aug 16, 2025 efbet League
Spartak Varna vs Cherno More
1:3
Mar 8, 2025 efbet League
Cherno More vs Spartak Varna
1:1
Sep 22, 2024 efbet League
Spartak Varna vs Cherno More
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Cherno More Compare

Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

Spartak Varna Compare

Top Goalscorer Granchov A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Stojanovski G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Cherno More 95 / 100
Spartak Varna 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Cherno More Spartak Varna

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Cherno More Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Cherno More's goal record stands at 71% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Defensive concern: Spartak Varna conceded in 69% of 29 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.20 goals per match.

Solid form: Cherno More remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Cherno More VS Spartak Varna
1.25 Goals Scored 0.63
2 Goals Conceded 1.63
75% Over 1.5 50%
63% Over 2.5 25%
63% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Cherno More

(Home)
26 Sept
Cherno More
1 : 0
Dunav Ruse
19 Sept
Arda
1 : 1
Cherno More
11 Sept
Cherno More
2 : 2
Lok. Sofia
06 Sept
Lok. Plovdiv
1 : 0
Cherno More
30 Aug
CSKA Sofia
3 : 1
Cherno More
Page 1 of 6

Spartak Varna

(Away)
20 Sept
Spartak Varna
0 : 1
Lok. Sofia
13 Sept
Slavia Sofia
0 : 0
Spartak Varna
05 Sept
Spartak Varna
1 : 1
CSKA Sofia
30 Aug
Spartak Varna
1 : 1
Ludogorets
22 Aug
Levski Sofia
6 : 0
Spartak Varna
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Levski Sofia 9 8 1 0 21:4 25
2 CSKA Sofia 10 7 3 0 24:7 24
3 Ludogorets 9 7 2 0 16:7 23
4 CSKA 1948 Sofia 10 7 1 2 19:10 22
5 Arda 10 5 2 3 15:12 17
6 Botev Plovdiv 10 5 1 4 16:14 16
7 Slavia Sofia 10 2 5 3 9:8 11
8 Spartak Varna 10 2 4 4 10:15 10
9 Botev Vratsa 10 2 3 5 9:19 9
10 Septemvri Sofia 10 2 2 6 8:18 8
11 Lok. Sofia 10 1 4 5 11:18 7
12 Lok. Plovdiv 10 2 1 7 5:13 7
13 Cherno More 10 1 3 6 11:20 6
14 Dunav Ruse 10 1 2 7 10:19 5
Promotion - efbet League (Championship Group)
Promotion - efbet League (Conference League Group)
Relegation - efbet League (Relegation Group)