Sport Picks

England

EFL Trophy 2025/2026 SMH Group Stadium, Chesterfield

Chesterfield

1 - 0

Burton

Our Tip

Match Events

33'

Naylor T.

46'

Sub

Fleck J. In: Stirk R.

Out: Fleck J.

46'

Sub

Armer J. In: Hartridge A.

Out: Armer J.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Chesterfield in this EFL Trophy 2025/2026 tie, finishing 1-0. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

45%

Chesterfield

35%

Draws

20%

Burton

Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Chesterfield

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

45% / Medium Confidence

Form's been kind to Chesterfield lately — more wins on the board than Burton.
Chesterfield are the model's pick here, at 70%.
Chesterfield have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
Historical meetings favor Burton, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%

Over 4.5 Goals 14%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%

Chesterfield Clean Sheet 16%

Burton Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Chesterfield	Burton
Matches Played	28	28
Wins	12	7
Draws	8	12
Losses	8	9
Goals Scored	1.36	1.11
Goals Conceded	1.11	1.21
Expected Goals (xG)	1.56	1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.10	1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 7, 2025 EFL Trophy

Chesterfield vs Burton

1:0

Jul 8, 2025 Club Friendly

Chesterfield vs Burton

5:0

Jul 27, 2019 Club Friendly

Chesterfield vs Burton

2:5

Feb 12, 2016 League One

Burton vs Chesterfield

1:0

Sep 26, 2015 League One

Chesterfield vs Burton

1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Chesterfield Compare

Top Goalscorer Bonis L.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.2

Avg xA / game 0.78

Burton Compare

Avg xG / game 1.36

Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Chesterfield 66 / 100

Burton 14 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Chesterfield Burton

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Chesterfield Win (1)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes

Correct Score 2:1

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.40 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Chesterfield stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Chesterfield scored in 75% of their last 28 games.

Burton's defensive record shows goals conceded in 79% of 28 matches.

Scoring Trends

Chesterfield VS Burton

1.63 Goals Scored 1.5

1.5 Goals Conceded 1.5

63% Over 1.5 88%

50% Over 2.5 75%

25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Chesterfield

(Home)

19 Sept

Chesterfield

2 : 0

York City

15 Sept

Chesterfield

5 : 3

Manchester City U21

12 Sept

Oldham

1 : 2

Chesterfield

05 Sept

Chesterfield

3 : 3

Barnet

01 Sept

Chesterfield

1 : 1

Gillingham

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Burton

(Away)

19 Sept

Burton

2 : 2

Mansfield

12 Sept

Oxford Utd

3 : 0

Burton

05 Sept

Burton

2 : 2

Cambridge Utd

02 Sept

Burton

4 : 1

AFC Wimbledon

29 Aug

Notts County

2 : 1

Burton

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