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Chiangmai United vs Police Tero

Thailand Thailand

Thai League 2 700th Anniversary Stadium
Our Tip

Match Events

41' Event
Thiagao Duchatsch
64' Event
Seo M.
(Penalty)
78' Event
Noisri W.

AI Match Summary

The Thai League 2 game between Chiangmai United and Police Tero finished 4-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Chiangmai United.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Chiangmai United
39%
Draws
31%
Police Tero
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Police Tero come out ahead of Chiangmai United on wins alone.
  • 39% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Chiangmai United here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 37.2%
Chiangmai United Clean Sheet 68%
Police Tero Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Chiangmai United Police Tero
Matches Played 29 31
Wins 12 13
Draws 0 8
Losses 17 10
Goals Scored 1.75 1.38
Goals Conceded 2.25 1.75
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.25 1.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 4, 2026 Thai League 2
Chiangmai United vs Police Tero
4:1
Sep 21, 2025 Thai League 2
Police Tero vs Chiangmai United
0:1
Feb 12, 2025 Thai League 2
Police Tero vs Chiangmai United
3:0
Oct 5, 2024 Thai League 2
Chiangmai United vs Police Tero
2:1
Apr 30, 2022 Thai League 1
Chiangmai United vs Police Tero
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Chiangmai United Compare

Top Goalscorer Thiagao Duchatsch
1 Goals
Assists Leader Noisri W.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Police Tero Compare

Top Goalscorer Kelani Essadi A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Chiangmai United 41 / 100
Police Tero 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Chiangmai United Police Tero

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CHI Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Police Tero's defensive record shows goals conceded in 81% of 31 matches.

Chiangmai United scored in 79% of their last 29 games.

These sides typically produce 2.60 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Chiangmai United remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Chiangmai United VS Police Tero
1.75 Goals Scored 1.38
2.25 Goals Conceded 1.75
88% Over 1.5 75%
88% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 25%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Rasisalai United342011364:3571
2Sisaket United341612649:3160
3Pattani341610849:4558
4Nong Bua Pitchaya341661259:5954
5Police Tero341581150:4453
6Chainat Hornbill3412101250:4646
7Khonkaen United3411121160:5245
8Mahasarakham341291347:4245
9Trat FC341281449:5344
10Chiangmai United341411955:5843
11Phrae United3410131140:5043
12Pattaya United3410121245:4242
13Songkhla341181537:4641
14Chanthaburi3410101444:4640
15Nakhon Pathom341091529:3739
16Kasetsart349111446:4938
17Nakhon Si United348121432:5436
18Bangkok FC34981740:5635
19Lampang F.C.00000:00