Sport Picks

Japan

J1 League 2026 Fukuda Denshi Arena

Chiba

1 - 2

FC Tokyo

Our Tip

Match Events

31'

Scholz A.

(Penalty)

46'

Sub

Amagasa T. In: Yasui T.

Out: Amagasa T.

46'

Sub

Matsumura T. In: Goya H.

Out: Matsumura T.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

FC Tokyo in this J1 League 2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored FC Tokyo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%

Chiba

44%

Draws

20%

FC Tokyo

Draw rate projection: 44% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence

Form's been kind to FC Tokyo lately — more wins on the board than Chiba.
44% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%

Over 2.5 Goals 25%

Over 3.5 Goals 22%

Over 4.5 Goals 10%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%

Chiba Clean Sheet 10%

FC Tokyo Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Chiba	FC Tokyo
Matches Played	30	29
Wins	9	16
Draws	3	5
Losses	18	8
Goals Scored	1	2
Goals Conceded	2	1.13
Expected Goals (xG)	1.00	2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	2.00	1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 6, 2026 J1 League

FC Tokyo vs Chiba

Possession: 45% - 52% Cards: 1 - 4

0:3

Mar 18, 2026 J1 League

Chiba vs FC Tokyo

Possession: 55% - 50% Cards: 3 - 1

1:2

Jul 10, 2024 Emperors Cup

FC Tokyo vs Chiba

Possession: 56% - 50% Cards: 2 - 0

1:2

Oct 13, 2013 Emperors Cup

Chiba vs FC Tokyo

Possession: 53% - 50% Cards: 2 - 1

1:2

Nov 26, 2011 J2 League

FC Tokyo vs Chiba

Possession: 60% - 52% Cards: 1 - 3

1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Chiba Compare

Top Goalscorer Yasui T.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.77

Avg xA / game 0.5

FC Tokyo Compare

Top Goalscorer Sato R.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.82

Avg xA / game 1.11

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Chiba 34 / 100

FC Tokyo 32 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Chiba FC Tokyo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick TOK Win (2)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No

Correct Score 0:1

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Chiba scored in 70% of their last 30 games.

FC Tokyo let in goals in 76% of their last 29 matches.

H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Chiba stayed unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Chiba VS FC Tokyo

1 Goals Scored 2

2 Goals Conceded 1.13

88% Over 1.5 75%

50% Over 2.5 63%

25% Over 3.5 38%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Kashima Antlers	18	15	3	31:11	45
2	FC Tokyo	18	13	5	32:18	37
3	Machida Zelvia	18	13	5	28:22	37
4	Kawasaki Frontale	18	10	8	26:28	28
5	Verdy	18	10	8	22:26	28
6	Urawa Reds	18	7	11	25:22	25
7	Yokohama F. Marinos	18	6	12	28:31	20
8	Kashiwa Reysol	18	7	11	22:24	20
9	Mito	18	6	12	23:39	18
10	Chiba	18	3	15	18:34	12

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Vissel Kobe	18	11	7	29:25	35
2	Cerezo Osaka	18	11	7	30:21	31
3	Nagoya Grampus	18	10	8	33:31	31
4	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	18	10	8	31:23	30
5	Gamba Osaka	18	10	8	31:25	28
6	Okayama	18	8	10	26:29	26
7	Shimizu S-Pulse	18	8	10	23:25	24
8	Kyoto	18	8	10	22:28	23
9	V-Varen Nagasaki	18	7	11	21:29	21
10	Avispa Fukuoka	18	7	11	21:31	21