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Chibuto vs Desportivo de Nacala

Mozambique Mozambique

Mocambola 2019
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Chibuto play Desportivo de Nacala in the Mocambola 2019. It looks like a close match. Recently, Chibuto averaged 1 goals scored and 1.13 conceded. Desportivo de Nacala averaged 0.7 goals scored and 1.56 conceded. In past meetings, Chibuto won 2, Desportivo de Nacala won 2, and they drew 1. Their last match on Nov 24, 2019 ended 3:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.42 for Chibuto and 0.74 for Desportivo de Nacala. This points to a Chibuto double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

53%
Chibuto
21%
Draws
26%
Desportivo de Nacala
Draw rate projection: 21% Favored: Chibuto

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / High Confidence
  • Chibuto picked up more points recently compared to Desportivo de Nacala.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.42 vs 0.74 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 66%
Over 2.5 Goals 35%
Over 3.5 Goals 21%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 42%
Chibuto Clean Sheet 27%
Desportivo de Nacala Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 59%
Second Half Goal 63%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Chibuto Desportivo de Nacala
Matches Played 30 27
Wins 11 3
Draws 4 8
Losses 15 16
Goals Scored 1 0.7
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.56

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 24, 2019 Mocambola
Desportivo de Nacala vs Chibuto
3:1
Aug 6, 2019 Mocambola
Chibuto vs Desportivo de Nacala
2:0
Jul 5, 2018 Mocambola
Desportivo de Nacala vs Chibuto
0:1
Mar 3, 2018 Mocambola
Chibuto vs Desportivo de Nacala
0:0
Aug 20, 2017 Mocambola
Desportivo de Nacala vs Chibuto
2:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Chibuto 53 / 100
Desportivo de Nacala 25 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Chibuto Desportivo de Nacala

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Chibuto Win (1)
Secondary Pick Chibuto & Under 3.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +17.7%
2.22
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +20.8%
3.45
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Chibuto attacking → ← attacking Desportivo de Nacala

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Chibuto scored in 67% of their last 30 games.

Desportivo de Nacala let in goals in 85% of their last 27 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Chibuto went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Desportivo de Nacala lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

37 Points in last 5 17
0.00 Goals expected (xG) 0.38
0.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.63