Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Chicago Fire vs FC Cincinnati

USA USA

MLS Soldier Field
Our Tip

Match Events

16' Event
Cuypers H.
24' Event
Evander
28' Event
Cuypers H.
Assist: Zinckernagel P.

AI Match Summary

FC Cincinnati in this MLS matchup, with the score ending 2-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored FC Cincinnati.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Chicago Fire
30%
Draws
34%
FC Cincinnati
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Chicago Fire

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Attack-wise there's a gap: FC Cincinnati at 3.25 per game, Chicago Fire at 2.25.
  • Chicago Fire are the model's pick here, at 36%.
  • Regular MLS form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 84%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 84%
Over 3.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 34%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%
Chicago Fire Clean Sheet 10%
FC Cincinnati Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Chicago Fire FC Cincinnati
Matches Played 28 30
Wins 14 14
Draws 6 7
Losses 8 9
Goals Scored 2.25 3.25
Goals Conceded 1.63 2.63
Expected Goals (xG) 2.25 3.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.63 2.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 3, 2026 MLS
Chicago Fire vs FC Cincinnati
2:3
Apr 18, 2026 MLS
FC Cincinnati vs Chicago Fire
3:3
Jul 5, 2025 MLS
FC Cincinnati vs Chicago Fire
2:1
Apr 20, 2025 MLS
Chicago Fire vs FC Cincinnati
2:3
Jul 17, 2024 MLS
FC Cincinnati vs Chicago Fire
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Chicago Fire Compare

Top Goalscorer Cuypers H.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.73
Avg xA / game 1.13

FC Cincinnati Compare

Top Goalscorer Evander
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.95
Avg xA / game 1.81

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Chicago Fire 34 / 100
FC Cincinnati 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Chicago Fire FC Cincinnati

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Chicago Fire found the back of the net in 89% of recent matches (28 games).

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

Defensive concern: FC Cincinnati conceded in 70% of 30 recent games.

Chicago Fire went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Chicago Fire VS FC Cincinnati
2.25 Goals Scored 3.25
1.63 Goals Conceded 2.63
88% Over 1.5 100%
88% Over 2.5 88%
63% Over 3.5 88%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Vancouver Whitecaps14102234:1232
2San Jose Earthquakes15102334:1532
3Real Salt Lake1482426:1926
4FC Dallas1574430:2225
5Los Angeles FC1573524:1724
6Seattle Sounders1373317:1124
7Houston Dynamo1471619:2322
8Minnesota United1564518:2222
9Los Angeles Galaxy1555522:2220
10San Diego FC1545630:2717
11Colorado Rapids1551925:2416
12St. Louis City1444616:2016
13Portland Timbers1442822:2814
14Austin FC1535719:3114
15Sporting Kansas City1432914:3611
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Nashville SC14103131:1133
2Inter Miami1594239:2831
3Chicago Fire1482427:1626
4New England Revolution1481522:1825
5New York Red Bulls1564525:3222
6Charlotte FC1563624:2321
7FC Cincinnati1555536:3720
8New York City1554625:2119
9DC United1546521:2518
10Columbus Crew1544721:2316
11CF Montreal1442822:3114
12Orlando City1542923:4414
13Toronto FC1435622:2914
14Atlanta United1432914:2311
15Philadelphia Union15141018:307