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Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

USA USA

MLS Soldier Field, Chicago, IL
Chicago Fire Logo

Chicago Fire

Thu, Oct 15, 2026
VS
12:30 AM
Philadelphia Union Logo

Philadelphia Union

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Chicago Fire host Philadelphia Union in the MLS. History leans heavily one way in this fixture. Recent numbers: Chicago Fire at 1.87 goals for, 1.47 against; Philadelphia Union at 2.04 for, 1.61 against. Head-to-head, Chicago Fire have won 1 to Philadelphia Union's 4, with 0 draws. They last met on Mar 21, 2026, ending 1:2. The numbers (1.25 xG vs 2.56) point toward Chicago Fire. AI prediction: Away (2) Win — correct score tipped at 1-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
Chicago Fire
15%
Draws
58%
Philadelphia Union
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Philadelphia Union

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Chicago Fire lately — more wins on the board than Philadelphia Union.
  • Philadelphia Union are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular MLS form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Philadelphia Union have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 79%
Chicago Fire Clean Sheet 10%
Philadelphia Union Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Chicago Fire Philadelphia Union
Matches Played 30 28
Wins 16 12
Draws 5 7
Losses 9 9
Goals Scored 1.87 2.04
Goals Conceded 1.47 1.61
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 2.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 21, 2026 MLS
Philadelphia Union vs Chicago Fire
1:2
Nov 1, 2025 MLS
Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union
0:3
Oct 26, 2025 MLS
Philadelphia Union vs Chicago Fire
3:2
Aug 23, 2025 MLS
Philadelphia Union vs Chicago Fire
4:0
Jun 26, 2025 MLS
Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union
0:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Chicago Fire 10 / 100
Philadelphia Union 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Chicago Fire Philadelphia Union

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Philadelphia Union Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Chicago Fire scored in 97% of their last 30 outings.

Games between these two average 3.20 goals.

Philadelphia Union let in goals in 79% of their last 28 matches.

Chicago Fire has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Chicago Fire VS Philadelphia Union
1.38 Goals Scored 3.25
1.88 Goals Conceded 1.13
88% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History

Chicago Fire

(Home)
07 Oct
Chicago Fire
3 : 1
Vancouver Whitecaps
26 Sept
Charlotte FC
0 : 1
Chicago Fire
20 Sept
Nashville SC
3 : 0
Chicago Fire
13 Sept
Chicago Fire
1 : 2
New England Revolution
10 Sept
Chicago Fire
1 : 1
Inter Miami
Page 1 of 6

Philadelphia Union

(Away)
26 Sept
Philadelphia Union
4 : 2
Orlando City
20 Sept
Sporting Kansas City
3 : 4
Philadelphia Union
14 Sept
San Diego FC
0 : 5
Philadelphia Union
09 Sept
Philadelphia Union
5 : 0
FC Cincinnati
05 Sept
Philadelphia Union
2 : 0
CF Montreal
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vancouver Whitecaps 27 15 5 7 60:29 50
2 St. Louis City 27 13 8 6 48:36 47
3 FC Dallas 27 13 8 6 50:42 47
4 San Jose Earthquakes 27 13 6 8 49:39 45
5 Houston Dynamo 27 13 5 9 34:32 44
6 Los Angeles FC 28 11 8 9 43:30 41
7 Seattle Sounders 27 10 8 9 35:35 38
8 Colorado Rapids 27 11 3 13 38:38 36
9 Los Angeles Galaxy 28 9 9 10 37:44 36
10 Portland Timbers 27 9 5 13 48:51 32
11 Real Salt Lake 27 9 5 13 40:44 32
12 San Diego FC 27 8 8 11 47:47 32
13 Austin FC 27 7 10 10 35:47 31
14 Minnesota United 27 7 8 12 40:49 29
15 Sporting Kansas City 27 6 3 18 32:65 21
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Nashville SC 27 18 6 3 55:21 60
2 New England Revolution 27 14 4 9 45:36 46
3 Inter Miami 27 12 10 5 64:50 46
4 Chicago Fire 27 13 6 8 49:39 45
5 Charlotte FC 27 12 7 8 47:38 43
6 Philadelphia Union 27 11 6 10 54:44 39
7 Orlando City 27 10 4 13 48:64 34
8 New York Red Bulls 27 9 6 12 34:51 33
9 New York City 27 8 9 10 41:36 33
10 FC Cincinnati 26 8 9 9 55:64 33
11 DC United 26 6 12 8 34:42 30
12 Columbus Crew 27 8 5 14 39:43 29
13 Toronto FC 27 6 11 10 39:51 29
14 Atlanta United 27 7 6 14 32:45 27
15 CF Montreal 27 6 6 15 34:54 24
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)